Game Time: 7/11, 07:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Chicago Cubs face off against the New York Yankees in a compelling matchup that has the Yankees as favorites at -187, while the Cubs come in as +152 underdogs according to DraftKings. Despite the odds, 60% of the money is backing the Cubs, indicating confidence in their ability to perform in this road game. With Chris Flexen taking the mound for the Cubs and Carlos Rodón pitching for the Yankees, this matchup promises to bring intriguing pitcher-batter dynamics to the forefront.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Chris Flexen vs. Carlos Rodón
Chris Flexen (CHC):
Chris Flexen's arsenal includes a Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage, 92.5 mph), Cutter (28% usage, 89.0 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 72.7 mph), Slider (8% usage, 81.0 mph), Slurve (3% usage, 77.6 mph), and Changeup (2% usage, 80.9 mph). Flexen's style relies on a velocity mix that challenges batters with varying speeds and breaks. The Yankees lineup averages .257 this season with a projected xBA of .243 against Flexen’s arsenal, showing a potential edge for the pitcher.
Carlos Rodón (NYY):
Carlos Rodón brings a diverse pitch mix: Four-Seam (40% usage, 94.4 mph), Slider (30% usage, 85.6 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 85.1 mph), Sinker (9% usage, 92.2 mph), Curveball (5% usage, 80.0 mph), and Cutter (0% usage, 91.1 mph). The Cubs lineup averages .260 this season with a projected xBA of .257 against Rodón’s arsenal, indicating a close matchup with a slight pitching advantage.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Cubs lineup averages .260 this season but projects to .243 against Rodón's arsenal. Key performers include Kyle Tucker, who shows the biggest decrease: Season BA .285 → xBA .204 (-81 points), Season K% 13.9% → Arsenal K% 19.2% (+5.3%). This indicates a notable drop in performance against Rodón.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Yankees lineup averages .252 this season and projects to .257 against Flexen’s arsenal. Oswald Peraza shows the biggest increase: Season BA .152 → xBA .219 (+67 points), Season K% 28.0% → Arsenal K% 29.5% (+1.5%). Peraza’s expected improvement highlights a potential edge against Flexen.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Cubs' projected K-rate is 22.6% vs. Rodón, up 2.9% from their 19.7% season average. This suggests a moderate increase in strikeouts. The Yankees' projected K-rate is 24.5% vs. Flexen, up 0.6% from their 23.9% season average, indicating a slight increase in strikeouts.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
None of the batters from the Cubs or Yankees meet the criteria of xBA > 0.300 and a boost > +20 points. Thus, no batting leans are suggested.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Cubs' increase in K-rate to 22.6% and the Yankees' to 24.5% do not meet the criteria for a lean OVER as they do not surpass the 25% threshold or show an increase of over 4%.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
