Written by: Michael Rivera
Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.
Cardinals vs Reds: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 30)
Last updated: August 30, 2025Game Time: 8/30, 06:40PM
Brief Intro
Tonight's matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds is poised to be a thrilling NL Central showdown. The Reds are favored at home with a −149 line on DraftKings, while the Cardinals come in as +123 underdogs. With 85% of the money backing the Reds, bettors are clearly siding with Cincinnati's home-field advantage.
Starting Pitching Analysis
Pitching Matchup: Michael McGreevy vs Andrew Abbott
Michael McGreevy (STL):
Michael McGreevy brings a diverse six-pitch arsenal to the mound, featuring:- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage, 93.0 mph)
- Sinker (22% usage, 91.9 mph)
- Sweeper (21% usage, 83.6 mph)
- Curveball (11% usage, 79.3 mph)
- Cutter (10% usage, 88.6 mph)
- Changeup (9% usage, 88.2 mph)
- Slider (1% usage, 84.6 mph)
McGreevy is a pitch-mix artist, using a low-velocity, varied approach to confuse batters. The Reds lineup has averaged .256 this season, but they project a slightly lower xBA of .246 against McGreevy’s varied offerings.
Andrew Abbott (CIN):
Andrew Abbott counters with a more streamlined approach:- Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 92.7 mph)
- Changeup (20% usage, 84.7 mph)
- Curveball (16% usage, 80.9 mph)
- Sweeper (12% usage, 82.7 mph)
- Cutter (4% usage, 88.6 mph)
Abbott relies heavily on his four-seamer to set up his secondary pitches. The Cardinals lineup averages .237 for the season but drops to a projected xBA of .216 against Abbott’s arsenal.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Cardinals vs Andrew Abbott:
- The Cardinals lineup averages .237 this season but projects to .216 vs Abbott’s arsenal.
- Notable change: None of the Cardinals batters show significant positive changes against Abbott's arsenal.
For the Reds vs Michael McGreevy:
- The Reds lineup averages .256 this season but projects a slightly lower .246 vs McGreevy’s arsenal.
- Biggest increase: Jose Trevino: Season BA .246 → xBA vs arsenal .280 (+34 points), Season K% 12.1% → Arsenal K% 10.3% (−1.8%)
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 27.3% vs Abbott — up 3.2% from their 24.1% season average.
- The Reds' projected K-rate is 22.3% vs McGreevy — up 1.2% from their 21.1% season average.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Unknown Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
- 📢 Prop Alert: Jose Trevino (.246 → .280, +34 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Andrew Abbott strikeout OVER - Cardinals' K-rate jumps to 27.3% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Jose Trevino shows a strong advantage against McGreevy's arsenal, potentially a strong prop bet.
- Andrew Abbott is a candidate for strikeout props given the Cardinals' increased projected K-rate.
- Umpire assignment remains unknown, adding volatility to prop bets.
- Betting leans favor Cincinnati, with money and matchup edges supporting the Reds.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the STL vs CIN game? A: Jose Trevino meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA of .280.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, so tendencies are unknown.
Q: What time is the STL vs CIN game? A: 8/30, 06:40PM
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