August 18, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

Cardinals vs Marlins: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 18)

Last updated: August 18, 2025

Game Time: 8/18, 06:40PM

Game Preview

In an exciting MLB matchup, the St. Louis Cardinals face off against the Miami Marlins. DraftKings lists the Marlins as a −138 favorite, with the Cardinals as a +114 underdog. An interesting note is that 51% of the betting money is backing the Marlins, indicating a slightly public-leaning sentiment towards Miami. This game presents intriguing angles, particularly with the pitcher duel set to take place.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Matthew Liberatore vs Eury Pérez

Matthew Liberatore (STL):

Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage, 94.0 mph), Slider (22% usage, 86.4 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 77.6 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 88.8 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 90.2 mph), Sinker (11% usage, 94.1 mph)

Liberatore is a versatile pitcher with a diverse arsenal, utilizing a mix of off-speed and fastball pitches. The Marlins lineup averages .264 this season with a projected xBA of .266 vs Liberatore's arsenal, suggesting a slight edge for Miami's hitters.

Eury Pérez (MIA):

Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage, 97.8 mph), Slider (20% usage, 86.1 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 79.7 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 89.7 mph), Sweeper (7% usage, 83.1 mph), Sinker (1% usage, 96.6 mph)

Pérez is a power pitcher, heavily relying on his high-velocity fastball. The Cardinals lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .238 vs Pérez's arsenal, indicating a challenging matchup for St. Louis hitters.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Cardinals vs Eury Pérez: The Cardinals lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .238 vs Pérez's arsenal.

Iván Herrera: Season BA .288 → xBA vs arsenal .210 (−78 points), Season K% 21.1% → Arsenal K% 24.6% (+3.5%)
Jordan Walker: Season BA .234 → xBA vs arsenal .210 (−24 points), Season K% 26.4% → Arsenal K% 33.6% (+7.2%)

For Marlins vs Matthew Liberatore: The Marlins lineup averages .264 this season with a projected xBA of .266 vs Liberatore's arsenal.

Agustín Ramírez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .279 (+29 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 16.5% (−6.0%)
Xavier Edwards: Season BA .302 → xBA vs arsenal .273 (−29 points), Season K% 13.3% → Arsenal K% 12.9% (−0.4%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 23.3% vs Pérez — up 2.0% from their 21.3% season average.
The Marlins' projected K-rate is 20.0% vs Liberatore — up 0.4% from their 19.6% season average.

Higher strikeout rates indicate potential value in strikeout props for both pitchers.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: TBA

Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Agustín Ramírez (.250 → .279, +29 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup for strikeout props.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Agustín Ramírez shows a notable increase in expected batting average against Liberatore, making him a key player to watch.
No clear edge in strikeout props due to modest increases in team K-rates.
Umpire assignment is unknown, adding variability to potential prop outcomes.
Overall, the Marlins' slight batting advantage and public backing make them a favorite in this matchup.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cardinals vs Marlins game? A: Agustín Ramírez meets our strict betting criteria with a notable expected BA increase.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making any predictions on tendencies speculative.

Q: What time is the Cardinals vs Marlins game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/18, 06:40PM.

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