Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Cardinals vs Mariners: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 10)
Last updated: September 10, 2025Game Time: 9/10, 09:40PM
Today's Setup
The St. Louis Cardinals travel to Seattle to face the Mariners in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Mariners are favored heavily, with DraftKings listing them as a −232 favorite, while the Cardinals are the underdogs at +186. A significant 81% of the betting public is backing the Mariners, indicating strong confidence in their chances.Starting Pitching Analysis
Pitching Matchup: Michael McGreevy (STL) vs Logan Gilbert (SEA)Michael McGreevy (STL):
Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage, 93.0 mph), Sinker (23% usage, 91.8 mph), Sweeper (21% usage, 83.6 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 79.5 mph), Cutter (10% usage, 88.7 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 88.0 mph), Slider (1% usage, 84.7 mph)Michael McGreevy is a versatile pitcher with a diverse arsenal, relying on a mix of speeds and movements. However, his approach leans towards finesse rather than overpowering velocity. The Mariners lineup has averaged .258 this season but projects to a .248 xBA against McGreevy's pitch mix, suggesting potential struggles against his diverse offerings.
Logan Gilbert (SEA):
Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage, 95.4 mph), Slider (36% usage, 87.4 mph), Splitter (19% usage, 82.1 mph), Curveball (7% usage, 82.1 mph), Sinker (2% usage, 95.6 mph)Logan Gilbert brings a power-heavy arsenal to the mound, featuring high velocity and a dominant slider. The Cardinals lineup, averaging .251 for the season, is projected to see a dip to a .230 xBA against Gilbert's pitches, indicating a tough matchup for St. Louis hitters.
Batting Edges vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting EdgesFor STL vs Logan Gilbert: The Cardinals lineup averages .251 this season but projects to .230 against Gilbert's arsenal. Notably, Iván Herrera shows the biggest decrease in expected performance:
- Iván Herrera: Season BA .283 → xBA vs arsenal .203 (-80 points), Season K% 19.3% → Arsenal K% 25.4% (+6.1%)
For SEA vs Michael McGreevy: The Mariners lineup averages .258 this season and projects to .248 against McGreevy's arsenal. No player shows a significant increase in performance, but Josh Naylor's expected decrease is notable:
- Josh Naylor: Season BA .282 → xBA vs arsenal .249 (-33 points), Season K% 13.9% → Arsenal K% 20.7% (+6.8%)
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & RewardsFor the Cardinals: The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 26.9% vs Logan Gilbert — up 5.0% from their 21.9% season average. This suggests potential value in strikeout props.
For the Mariners: The Mariners' projected K-rate is 22.3% vs Michael McGreevy — up 2.4% from their 19.9% season average, indicating moderate strikeout potential.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: TBA Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.What to Bet On
No individual batter from either team meets the criteria for a batting prop alert, as no player projects an xBA over .300 with at least a 20-point increase.
However, for the strikeout market: ⚡ K Prop Alert: Logan Gilbert strikeout OVER - Cardinals' K-rate jumps to 26.9% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Logan Gilbert's high-velocity approach poses a significant challenge for the Cardinals, reflected in a projected increase in strikeouts.
- No batters from either team present clear statistical edges for batting props based on our criteria.
- The umpire assignment remains unknown, adding an element of uncertainty to the matchup.
- Overall, the focus should be on Gilbert's strikeout potential against a strikeout-prone Cardinals lineup.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the STL vs SEA game? A: No players meet our strict betting criteria.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced.
Q: What time is the STL vs SEA game? A: 9/10, 09:40PM
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