September 22, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Cardinals vs Giants: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 22)

Last updated: September 22, 2025

Game Time: 9/22, 09:45PM

Today's Setup

Tonight, the St. Louis Cardinals travel to San Francisco to face the Giants in a key matchup. DraftKings lists the Giants as a -150 favorite, while the Cardinals are +122 underdogs, with 77% of the money backing the home team. This game offers intriguing betting angles with Michael McGreevy on the mound for the Cardinals against the veteran Justin Verlander for the Giants.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Michael McGreevy vs Justin Verlander

Michael McGreevy (STL):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage, 93.0 mph), Sinker (22% usage, 91.8 mph), Sweeper (20% usage, 83.7 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 79.5 mph), Cutter (10% usage, 88.7 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 88.1 mph), Slider (1% usage, 84.7 mph)

McGreevy is a versatile pitcher with a balanced mix of fastballs and breaking balls, making him a pitch-mix artist. The Giants lineup, however, averages .235 this season with a projected xBA of .236 vs McGreevy's arsenal, suggesting a slight edge for the pitcher.

Justin Verlander (SF):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 94.0 mph), Slider (23% usage, 87.2 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 78.5 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 84.7 mph), Sweeper (7% usage, 80.5 mph), Sinker (0% usage, 93.3 mph)

Verlander leans on his high-velocity four-seam fastball and sharp slider, defining him as a velocity-heavy pitcher. The Cardinals lineup averages .247 this season but projects a lower xBA of .236 against Verlander's arsenal, indicating a challenging matchup for St. Louis hitters.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For St. Louis vs Justin Verlander:

Biggest Decrease: Iván Herrera: Season BA .281 → xBA vs arsenal .215 (-66 points), Season K% 18.7% → Arsenal K% 24.2% (+5.5%)

For San Francisco vs Michael McGreevy:

Biggest Increase: Casey Schmitt: Season BA .233 → xBA vs arsenal .277 (+44 points), Season K% 24.1% → Arsenal K% 22.9% (-1.2%)
Biggest Decrease: Heliot Ramos: Season BA .256 → xBA vs arsenal .213 (-43 points), Season K% 23.1% → Arsenal K% 27.1% (+4.0%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 24.5% vs Verlander — up 4.3% from their 20.2% season average.
The Giants' projected K-rate is 24.5% vs McGreevy — up 1.4% from their 23.1% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Casey Schmitt (.233 → .277, +44 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Justin Verlander strikeout OVER - Cardinals' K-rate jumps to 24.5% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Casey Schmitt's significant increase in xBA suggests a strong batting prop opportunity.
Justin Verlander's strikeout potential is elevated with the Cardinals' increased K-rate.
Umpire assignment is pending, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Giants are favored, but consider individual player props for sharper bets.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the STL vs SF game? A: Casey Schmitt stands out with a significant increase in xBA against McGreevy's arsenal.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, introducing volatility in prop expectations.

Q: What time is the STL vs SF game? A: 9/22, 09:45PM

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