Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Cardinals vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 27)
Last updated: September 27, 2025Game Time: 9/27, 02:20PM
Brief Intro
The St. Louis Cardinals head to Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs in a matchup that has significant playoff implications for the Cubs. DraftKings lists the Cubs as a -176 favorite, with the Cardinals set as +144 underdogs. A whopping 86% of the betting money is backing the Cubs, indicating strong public confidence in Chicago.
Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Michael McGreevy vs Jameson Taillon
Michael McGreevy (STL):
McGreevy brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring: Four-Seam (26% usage, 93.0 mph), Sinker (22% usage, 91.8 mph), Sweeper (19% usage, 83.7 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 79.6 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 88.1 mph), Cutter (10% usage, 88.7 mph), and a rarely-used Slider (1% usage, 84.6 mph). This mix suggests he's a pitch-mix artist, relying on movement and variation more than sheer velocity. The Cubs have shown a solid .254 average this season but project to improve slightly to a .262 average against McGreevy's repertoire.
Jameson Taillon (CHC):
Taillon features a more velocity-focused approach with: Four-Seam (39% usage, 92.3 mph), Sweeper (15% usage, 80.2 mph), Cutter (15% usage, 85.8 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 79.7 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 84.1 mph), and Sinker (7% usage, 92.3 mph). His arsenal is designed to challenge hitters at various speeds and angles. The Cardinals, batting .245 on the season, are expected to struggle slightly more, projecting a .233 average against Taillon’s mix.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For STL vs Jameson Taillon:
- Nolan Arenado sees a notable improvement in expected performance: Season BA .236 → xBA vs arsenal .257 (+21 points), Season K% 11.2% → Arsenal K% 8.6% (-2.6%).
- Iván Herrera faces a tougher challenge: Season BA .286 → xBA vs arsenal .236 (-50 points), Season K% 18.4% → Arsenal K% 20.4% (+2.0%).
For CHC vs Michael McGreevy:
- Ian Happ experiences a significant boost: Season BA .242 → xBA vs arsenal .303 (+62 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 19.7% (-2.8%).
- Moisés Ballesteros is expected to struggle: Season BA .283 → xBA vs arsenal .236 (-47 points), Season K% 17.7% → Arsenal K% 34.2% (+16.5%).
Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 23% vs Taillon — up 0.95% from their 22.05% season average, suggesting a slight increase in strikeout risk.
- The Cubs' projected K-rate is 23.6% vs McGreevy — up 2.81% from their 20.79% season average, indicating a moderate increase in strikeout potential.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Ian Happ (.242 → .303, +62 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No significant strikeout prop opportunities meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Ian Happ is a standout performer with a notable expected increase against McGreevy's arsenal.
- No significant strikeout prop opportunities were identified, highlighting a lack of clear pitcher advantages.
- Umpire assignment remains unknown, adding an element of unpredictability to player props.
- Overall, focus on Happ for batting props, while pitcher and strikeout bets lack strong justification.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cardinals vs Cubs game? A: Ian Happ is the standout player, showing a significant expected batting average increase against McGreevy.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it challenging to determine any tendencies.
Q: What time is the Cardinals vs Cubs game? A: The game starts at 2:20 PM on September 27th.
---
Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!
---
