Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
DET vs BOS: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 27)
Last updated: September 27, 2025
Game Time: TBD
Game Preview
In today's intriguing matchup, the Detroit Tigers (DET) travel to face the Boston Red Sox (BOS) in what promises to be a compelling showdown. While the betting odds for this game have not been released yet, the pitching performances and lineup dynamics are expected to play pivotal roles.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Keider Montero (DET) vs Connelly Early (BOS)
Keider Montero (DET):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage, 93.9 mph), Slider (22% usage, 84.2 mph), Sinker (20% usage, 93.7 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 79.0 mph), Changeup (12% usage, 86.8 mph), Sweeper (0% usage, 83.7 mph)
Keider Montero leans on a diverse pitch arsenal with a reliance on velocity, particularly through his fastball and sinker. This style can challenge batters with a mix of speed and movement. The Boston lineup has averaged .260 this season, but they project to hit .261 against Montero’s offerings.
Connelly Early (BOS):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage, 93.9 mph), Curveball (20% usage, 80.8 mph), Changeup (19% usage, 84.1 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 93.1 mph), Slider (12% usage, 86.7 mph), Sweeper (5% usage, 83.2 mph)
Connelly Early presents a mix of pitches with a balanced usage across fastball and breaking balls, making him a pitch-mix artist. The Detroit lineup, averaging .254 this season, is projected to slightly underperform at .244 against Early’s arsenal.
Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Detroit vs Connelly Early:
- Biggest Increase: Dillon Dingler: Season BA .276 → xBA vs arsenal .301 (+25 points), Season K% 23.6% → Arsenal K% 26.5% (+2.9%)
- Biggest Decrease: Jahmai Jones: Season BA .276 → xBA vs arsenal .208 (-68 points), Season K% 21.7% → Arsenal K% 40.6% (+18.9%)
For Boston vs Keider Montero:
- Biggest Increase: Wilyer Abreu: Season BA .251 → xBA vs arsenal .275 (+24 points), Season K% 23.9% → Arsenal K% 24.9% (+1.0%)
- Biggest Decrease: Romy Gonzalez: Season BA .305 → xBA vs arsenal .282 (-23 points), Season K% 23.7% → Arsenal K% 20.8% (-2.9%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Detroit's projected K-rate is 25.8% vs Connelly Early — up 1.9% from their 23.9% season average.
- Boston's projected K-rate is 20.6% vs Keider Montero — down 0.8% from their 21.4% season average.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Dillon Dingler (.276 → .301, +25 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Connelly Early strikeout OVER - Detroit's K-rate jumps to 25.8% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Dillon Dingler stands out as a strong batting prop, given his projected increase in performance.
- With Detroit's K-rate rising against Connelly Early, there's a potential strikeout prop opportunity.
- Umpire assignment remains unknown, adding uncertainty to prop betting.
- Overall, key statistical edges suggest targeting Dingler’s batting prop and considering Early’s strikeout prop.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the DET vs BOS game? A: Dillon Dingler meets our strict betting criteria with a significant projected batting increase.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making detailed analysis unavailable.
Q: What time is the DET vs BOS game? A: Game time is TBD.
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