September 26, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Cardinals vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 26)

Last updated: September 26, 2025

Game Time: 9/26, 02:20PM

Matchup Setup

The St. Louis Cardinals are set to face the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. With the Cubs as −176 favorites, per DraftKings, and 81% of the money backing them, the Cardinals enter as +144 underdogs. This matchup presents intriguing angles for bettors, especially given the disparities in pitching styles and lineup strengths.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Miles Mikolas vs Colin Rea

Miles Mikolas (STL):

Miles Mikolas brings a diverse pitch mix to the mound, featuring:

Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage, 92.9 mph)
Slider (23% usage, 87.7 mph)
Curveball (18% usage, 76.0 mph)
Sinker (16% usage, 92.4 mph)
Changeup (11% usage, 85.9 mph)
Sweeper (3% usage, 80.7 mph)

Mikolas is a pitch-mix artist, relying on precision rather than pure velocity. The Cubs lineup averages .250 this season but projects to a .245 xBA against Mikolas' varied arsenal, suggesting a slight edge for Mikolas in terms of limiting hits.

Colin Rea (CHC):

Colin Rea prefers a power approach with his arsenal:

Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage, 93.8 mph)
Splitter (12% usage, 87.4 mph)
Slider (10% usage, 85.1 mph)
Sinker (10% usage, 93.1 mph)
Curveball (9% usage, 80.3 mph)
Sweeper (9% usage, 82.8 mph)
Cutter (8% usage, 88.2 mph)

Rea's velocity-heavy style may challenge the Cardinals, who average .256 seasonally but are projected to drop to a .239 xBA against his arsenal.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Cardinals vs Rea:

The Cardinals' lineup averages .256 this season but projects to .239 vs Rea's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: No batter shows a significant increase.
Biggest Decrease: Iván Herrera: Season BA .286 → xBA vs arsenal .228 (-58 points), Season K% 18.4% → Arsenal K% 20.4% (+2%).

For the Cubs vs Mikolas:

The Cubs' lineup averages .250 this season but projects to .245 vs Mikolas' arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Ian Happ: Season BA .242 → xBA vs arsenal .267 (+25 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 23.3% (+0.8%).
Biggest Decrease: Kyle Tucker: Season BA .270 → xBA vs arsenal .205 (-65 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 18.4% (+3.7%).

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 22.5% vs Rea — up 2.9% from their 19.5% season average.
The Cubs' projected K-rate is 23.8% vs Mikolas — up 3.3% from their 20.5% season average.

These increases indicate potential value on strikeout props, especially for Colin Rea against the strikeout-prone Cardinals.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Ian Happ (.242 → .267, +25 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Colin Rea strikeout OVER - Cardinals' K-rate jumps to 22.5% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Ian Happ offers a strong batting edge against Mikolas, meeting the betting lean criteria.
Colin Rea presents a favorable strikeout opportunity against a Cardinals lineup prone to increased strikeouts.
Umpire assignment is currently TBA, adding an element of volatility to betting props.
Overall, the Cubs hold a strategic advantage with Rea’s velocity against the Cardinals’ lineup.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cardinals vs Cubs game? A: Ian Happ provides a potential advantage with a significant projected increase in batting average against Mikolas.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, so no conclusion can be drawn at this time.

Q: What time is the Cardinals vs Cubs game? A: 9/26, 02:20PM

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