Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Cardinals vs Brewers: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 13)
Last updated: September 13, 2025
Game Time: 9/13, 08:15PM
Today's Setup
The Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals in an NL Central showdown. With the Brewers favored at -172 on DraftKings and 89% of the betting money backing Milwaukee, the Cardinals look to upset as +140 underdogs. Key angles will revolve around how the Brewers' power arms face off against the Cardinals’ contact-based approach.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Sonny Gray vs Jacob Misiorowski
Sonny Gray (STL):
Sonny Gray brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring a mix of pitches: Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage, 91.7 mph), Sweeper (20% usage, 85.1 mph), Curveball (18% usage, 80.2 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 92.3 mph), Cutter (12% usage, 87.8 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 86.2 mph), and Slider (2% usage, 84.4 mph). Gray's style relies on craftiness and variation rather than sheer speed. The Brewers lineup, however, averages .257 this season with a projected xBA of .257 against Gray's mix, indicating a slight edge but no overwhelming advantage.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL):
Jacob Misiorowski is a velocity-heavy pitcher, leaning heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (55% usage, 99.2 mph) and Slider (25% usage, 94.2 mph), complemented by a Curveball (14% usage, 87.1 mph) and Changeup (7% usage, 92.3 mph). The Cardinals lineup, averaging .240 against his arsenal, projects a slightly lower xBA than their season average of .252, indicating potential struggles against Misiorowski's high-velocity offerings.
Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For STL vs Jacob Misiorowski:
- The Cardinals lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .240 vs Misiorowski's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Lars Nootbaar: Season BA .240 → xBA vs arsenal .262 (+22 points), Season K% 20.1% → Arsenal K% 19.3% (-0.8%)
- Biggest Decrease: Iván Herrera: Season BA .279 → xBA vs arsenal .215 (-64 points), Season K% 19.3% → Arsenal K% 23.8% (+4.5%)
For MIL vs Sonny Gray:
- The Brewers lineup averages .263 this season but projects to .257 vs Gray's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Joey Ortiz: Season BA .227 → xBA vs arsenal .252 (+25 points), Season K% 14.7% → Arsenal K% 14.5% (-0.2%)
- Biggest Decrease: Sal Frelick: Season BA .294 → xBA vs arsenal .237 (-57 points), Season K% 12.8% → Arsenal K% 14.2% (+1.4%)
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 25.5% vs Misiorowski — up 3.5% from their 21.9% season average.
- The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.8% vs Gray — up 1.3% from their 19.5% season average.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate:
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Lars Nootbaar (.240 → .262, +22 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No strikeout prop alerts meet our threshold today.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Lars Nootbaar presents a strong batting prop opportunity against Misiorowski with significant xBA improvement.
- Sonny Gray could face a challenging outing against a Brewers lineup that minimizes his edge.
- Umpire assignment remains unknown, increasing volatility for both strikeout and walk props.
- Overall, the game's betting landscape is slightly tilted towards Milwaukee, but player-specific props offer potential value.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cardinals vs Brewers game? A: Lars Nootbaar meets our strict betting criteria with an improved xBA against Misiorowski.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so tendencies are currently unknown.
Q: What time is the Cardinals vs Brewers game? A: 9/13, 08:15PM
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