Game Time: 7/22, 08:40 PM
1. Brief Intro
The St. Louis Cardinals head to Coors Field to face the Colorado Rockies in a showdown that offers intriguing betting angles. DraftKings lists the Cardinals as a -157 favorite with the Rockies as +129 underdogs. Notably, 94% of the betting money is backing the Cardinals, suggesting strong public confidence in St. Louis.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Erick Fedde vs. Bradley Blalock
Erick Fedde (STL):
Fedde presents a diverse arsenal with his Sinker (37% usage, 93.2 mph), Cutter (28% usage, 90.1 mph), Sweeper (25% usage, 82.4 mph), and Changeup (11% usage, 87.3 mph). His approach relies heavily on movement and deception rather than sheer velocity. The Rockies lineup, however, averages .280 this season and projects to a formidable .280 xBA against Fedde’s pitch mix, suggesting potential struggles for Fedde.
Bradley Blalock (COL):
Blalock counters with a power-oriented arsenal, featuring a Four-Seam (40% usage, 94.8 mph), Splitter (17% usage, 87.5 mph), Slider (14% usage, 85.5 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 81.6 mph), and Cutter (14% usage, 89.8 mph). The Cardinals lineup, which averages .250 seasonally, projects to a lower .228 xBA against Blalock’s offerings, indicating difficulty in handling his velocity and pitch variety.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Cardinals, with a seasonal average of .250, project to drop to .228 against Blalock’s arsenal. Nolan Arenado emerges with a slight advantage, moving from a .244 season BA to a .269 xBA (+25 points), though still below the .300 threshold. Meanwhile, Iván Herrera sees the largest decrease, from .310 to .208 (-102 points), indicating a challenging matchup.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Rockies improve from a .245 season average to a projected .280 xBA against Fedde’s arsenal. Ezequiel Tovar stands out, jumping from a .266 season BA to a .385 xBA (+119 points), well above the .300 mark, suggesting a strong opportunity. Conversely, Ryan McMahon slightly decreases from .218 to .213 (-5 points), showing minimal changes.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Cardinals’ projected K-rate is 26.2% vs. Blalock — up 5.0% from their 21.2% season average, indicating higher strikeout potential. For the Rockies, their projected K-rate is 20.7% vs. Fedde — down 6.5% from their 27.2% season average, suggesting improved contact and fewer strikeouts.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Ezequiel Tovar (.266 → .385, +119 points) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Other batters do not meet both the xBA > .300 and boost > +20 criteria.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Cardinals' strikeout rate increases to 26.2% vs. Blalock, suggesting a potential lean for Blalock’s strikeout OVER. However, it does not meet the strict 4% increase criterion (actual increase is 5.0%).
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Ezequiel Tovar - his .385 xBA against Fedde’s arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +119 point boost.
No significant strikeout prop leans meet our criteria for this matchup.
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