Game Time: 7/21, 08:40 PM
1. Brief Intro
Tonight's matchup features the St. Louis Cardinals visiting the Colorado Rockies. DraftKings lists the Cardinals as a -156 favorite, with 91% of the money backing them, while the Rockies are +128 underdogs. These betting lines reflect a heavy lean towards the Cardinals in this contest.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Michael McGreevy vs. Austin Gomber
Michael McGreevy (STL):
McGreevy brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam (26% usage, 93.0 mph), Sinker (24% usage, 91.8 mph), Sweeper (19% usage, 83.6 mph), Cutter (12% usage, 88.4 mph), Slider (8% usage, 83.6 mph), Changeup (6% usage, 88.4 mph), and Curveball (6% usage, 79.7 mph). This makes him a pitch-mix artist, able to keep hitters guessing. The Rockies lineup averages .263 this season with a projected xBA of .264 against McGreevy's varied arsenal, suggesting they might find some success against him.
Austin Gomber (COL):
Gomber relies on a mix of: Four-Seam (35% usage, 89.0 mph), Curveball (24% usage, 76.0 mph), Slider (17% usage, 82.4 mph), Changeup (16% usage, 80.6 mph), and Splitter (9% usage, 81.1 mph). This combination of pitches lacks overpowering velocity, positioning Gomber as a control and deception pitcher. The Cardinals lineup has a .264 season average but projects to a lower .238 against Gomber’s offerings.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For STL vs. Austin Gomber:
The Cardinals lineup averages .264 this season but projects to .238 against Gomber's arsenal. The biggest decrease comes from Iván Herrera: Season BA .313 → xBA vs. arsenal .194 (-119 points), Season K% 19.7% → Arsenal K% 31.1% (+11.4%). No players show a significant increase over the .300 threshold.
For COL vs. Michael McGreevy:
The Rockies lineup averages .255 this season and projects slightly better at .264 against McGreevy. Brenton Doyle sees the biggest increase: Season BA .205 → xBA vs. arsenal .268 (+63 points), Season K% 26.2% → Arsenal K% 21.4% (-4.8%). Orlando Arcia shows the biggest decrease: Season BA .292 → xBA vs. arsenal .227 (-65 points), Season K% 13.5% → Arsenal K% 21.8% (+8.3%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 24.8% against Gomber — up 6.5% from their 18.2% season average, indicating potential value on strikeout props against them. Meanwhile, the Rockies' projected K-rate is 23.5% against McGreevy, down 2.5% from their season average of 26.0%, suggesting a potential contact advantage.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No batters from either team meet the criteria of having an xBA above .300 with a boost of more than +20 points.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Cardinals' projected K-rate against Gomber is 24.8%, which is an increase of 6.5% from their season average, but it does not exceed the 25% threshold, thus no lean on strikeout props. The Rockies' K-rate against McGreevy falls below their season average, suggesting a contact play, but again, no lean on strikeout props as criteria aren't met.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup. Without any batter overperforming significantly against the opposing arsenal or the required increase in strikeout rates, this game lacks clear prop betting opportunities.
