Game Time: 8/2, 10:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
The St. Louis Cardinals visit the San Diego Padres in a matchup that pits Michael McGreevy against Randy Vásquez. DraftKings has the Padres as a -143 favorite, with the Cardinals as +118 underdogs, and a significant 97% of the money backing the Padres. The betting line reflects the Padres' perceived edge in this contest.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Michael McGreevy vs. Randy Vásquez
Michael McGreevy (STL):
McGreevy features a diverse arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage, 92.9 mph), Sweeper (24% usage, 83.3 mph), Sinker (22% usage, 91.7 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 88.3 mph), Curveball (8% usage, 79.0 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 88.2 mph), and Slider (1% usage, 84.0 mph). This mix suggests McGreevy is a pitch-mix artist rather than a velocity-heavy thrower. The Padres lineup has averaged .268 this season and projects a slightly higher xBA of .281 versus McGreevy's offerings.
Randy Vásquez (SD):
Vásquez employs a Cutter (27% usage, 90.4 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage, 93.0 mph), Sinker (18% usage, 93.0 mph), Sweeper (14% usage, 82.2 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 81.3 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 86.9 mph), and an unused Slider. The Cardinals lineup has averaged .259 this season, with a projected xBA of .248 against Vásquez's arsenal, indicating a challenging matchup for St. Louis hitters.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Cardinals lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .248 against Vásquez's pitches. Notably, Nolan Gorman shows an improvement: Season BA .221 → xBA vs. arsenal .247 (+26 points), Season K% 30.1% → Arsenal K% 24.8% (-5.3%). Conversely, Iván Herrera sees a decrease: Season BA .293 → xBA vs. arsenal .230 (-63 points), Season K% 19.6% → Arsenal K% 21.4% (+1.8%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Padres lineup averages .269 this season and projects to .281 against McGreevy's arsenal. Ryan O'Hearn benefits with an increase: Season BA .282 → xBA vs. arsenal .315 (+33 points), Season K% 17.4% → Arsenal K% 13.8% (-3.6%). Gavin Sheets also shows improvement: Season BA .249 → xBA vs. arsenal .299 (+50 points), Season K% 19.8% → Arsenal K% 17.4% (-2.4%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 21.5% vs. Vásquez — up 1.2% from their 20.3% season average, suggesting a slight increase in strikeouts. Meanwhile, the Padres' projected K-rate is 15.3% vs. McGreevy — down 1.4% from their 16.7% season average, indicating they might make more contact than usual.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Ryan O'Hearn (.282 → .315, +33 points) meets the criteria for a batter lean with an xBA over .300 and a boost of +33 points.
Gavin Sheets (.249 → .299, +50 points) does not meet the xBA > .300 requirement.
Nolan Gorman (.221 → .247, +26 points) does not meet the xBA > .300 requirement.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Cardinals' K-rate against Vásquez does not meet the criteria for a strikeout prop as it is below the 25% threshold.
The Padres' K-rate against McGreevy similarly does not meet the criteria.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Ryan O'Hearn - his .315 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +33 point boost. No significant strikeout prop edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
