Game Time: 8/1, 09:40 PM
1. Brief Intro
The St. Louis Cardinals face off against the San Diego Padres in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. DraftKings lists the Padres as the -169 favorites, with the Cardinals at +138 underdogs, and a significant 82% of the betting money is backing the Padres. This game will see Matthew Liberatore take the mound for the Cardinals against Nick Pivetta for the Padres, setting the stage for an exciting pitchers' duel.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Matthew Liberatore vs Nick Pivetta
Matthew Liberatore (STL):
Matthew Liberatore brings a varied arsenal, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage, 94.2 mph), Slider (23% usage, 86.4 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 77.8 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 88.9 mph), Cutter (12% usage, 90.2 mph), and Sinker (11% usage, 94.2 mph). As a pitcher with a balanced mix, Liberatore's velocity and pitch diversity could keep the Padres' lineup on their toes. However, the Padres lineup averages .273 this season with a projected xBA of .279 against Liberatore's offerings.
Nick Pivetta (SD):
Nick Pivetta relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 93.8 mph), along with a Curveball (22% usage, 79.1 mph), Sweeper (18% usage, 81.7 mph), Cutter (8% usage, 89.8 mph), Sinker (3% usage, 93.7 mph), Slider (1% usage, 83.1 mph), and Splitter (0% usage, 89.0 mph). Pivetta's fastball-centric approach could prove challenging for the Cardinals, whose lineup averages .261 this season but projects to .243 against Pivetta's arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For STL vs Nick Pivetta:
The Cardinals lineup, averaging .261 this season, projects to a .243 average against Pivetta's arsenal. Alec Burleson is the standout with the biggest increase, with his season BA of .287 projecting to .312 against Pivetta's arsenal (+25 points), while his K% remains fairly stable. Willson Contreras, however, faces a challenging matchup with a season BA of .250 projecting to .264 (+14 points), alongside a significant K% increase from 18.3% to 25.7% (+7.4%).
For SD vs Matthew Liberatore:
The Padres lineup averages .273 on the season and looks to improve slightly to .279 against Liberatore. Manny Machado shows the largest positive shift, with a season BA of .302 increasing to .325 against Liberatore's mix (+23 points). Conversely, Ryan O'Hearn sees a minor decrease, with his season BA of .283 slightly dropping to .280, paired with an increased K% from 17.5% to 21.6% (+4.1%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Cardinals are projected to strike out at a rate of 22.4% against Pivetta — up 4.6% from their 17.8% season average, suggesting potential value in strikeout props for Pivetta. The Padres' projected K-rate versus Liberatore is 18.9%, up 1.6% from their 17.3% season average, indicating a moderate increase in strikeout risks.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Alec Burleson (.287 → .312, +25 points) shows potential with an xBA above .300 and a +25 point boost, making him a strong candidate for a batting lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Nick Pivetta looks promising for strikeout props as the Cardinals' projected K-rate jumps to 22.4% against him, up 4.6% from their season average, meeting our criteria for a lean over.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Alec Burleson - his .312 xBA against Pivetta's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +25 point boost. Additionally, Nick Pivetta's strikeout OVER is a strong consideration as the Cardinals' projected K-rate jumps to 22.4% against him, up 4.6% from their 17.8% season average.
