Game Time: 8/6, 04:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
In a highly anticipated matchup, the St. Louis Cardinals take on the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. As per DraftKings, the LA Dodgers are set as a -217 favorite, while the STL Cardinals are +176 underdogs, with a significant 86% of the money backing the Dodgers. This game presents a unique opportunity for bettors to explore pitcher-batter matchups and potential props, especially with such a skewed betting line.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Matthew Liberatore vs. Shohei Ohtani
Matthew Liberatore (STL):
Liberatore brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage, 94.2 mph), Slider (23% usage, 86.4 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 77.7 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 88.9 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 90.2 mph), and Sinker (11% usage, 94.2 mph). This pitch-mix artist looks to challenge the Dodgers lineup, which averages .271 this season with a projected xBA of .248 against Liberatore's offerings.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD):
Ohtani, a velocity-heavy pitcher, utilizes a Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage, 98.0 mph), Sweeper (32% usage, 84.8 mph), Slider (9% usage, 87.6 mph), Sinker (8% usage, 96.5 mph), Splitter (4% usage, 91.3 mph), and Cutter (3% usage, 92.9 mph). The Cardinals lineup has hit .259 this season but projects to a .236 xBA against Ohtani's powerful arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For STL vs. Shohei Ohtani:
The Cardinals lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .236 vs. Ohtani's arsenal. Alec Burleson shows a promising increase: Season BA .281 → xBA .309 (+28 points), Season K% 13.2% → Arsenal K% 15.7% (+2.5%). Brendan Donovan sees the biggest decrease: Season BA .279 → xBA .266 (-13 points), Season K% 13.2% → Arsenal K% 19.6% (+6.4%).
For LAD vs. Matthew Liberatore:
The Dodgers lineup, averaging .271 this season, projects to .248 against Liberatore. Teoscar Hernández displays a slight improvement: Season BA .250 → xBA .255 (+5 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 26.5% (+4.0%). Will Smith sees the largest decrease: Season BA .321 → xBA .261 (-60 points), Season K% 19.0% → Arsenal K% 23.3% (+4.3%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 23.0% vs. Ohtani — up 3.3% from their 19.7% season average, indicating a moderate strikeout risk. The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 21.2% vs. Liberatore — up 3.7% from their 17.5% season average, suggesting potential caution for high strikeout prop plays.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
For the Cardinals, Alec Burleson (.280 → .309, +29 points) meets the criteria as a potential lean given his projected xBA is above .300 and the boost exceeds +20 points. None of the Dodgers batters meet both criteria for a lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither the Cardinals nor the Dodgers meet the 25% K-rate and 4% increase threshold for a strong strikeout prop lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Alec Burleson - his .309 xBA against Ohtani's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +29 point boost. No significant team strikeout prop leans meet our criteria in this matchup.
