Game Time: 7/20, 04:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
Thursday's matchup features the St. Louis Cardinals visiting the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks are favored on the moneyline at -148, while the Cardinals come in as +122 underdogs. A whopping 67% of the betting action is currently backing the Diamondbacks, highlighting a strong public sentiment towards Arizona.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Miles Mikolas vs. Merrill Kelly
Miles Mikolas (STL):
Mikolas brings a diversified pitch mix to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage, 92.3 mph), Slider (23% usage, 87.1 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 75.3 mph), Sinker (16% usage, 91.7 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 85.2 mph), and a Sweeper (3% usage, 80.3 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, his versatility is a key asset. However, the Diamondbacks lineup has averaged .272 this season but with a projected xBA of .2425 against Mikolas' arsenal, indicating a potential struggle to maintain season averages.
Merrill Kelly (AZ):
Kelly's arsenal features a Changeup (26% usage, 88.4 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage, 91.9 mph), Cutter (21% usage, 90.7 mph), Sinker (12% usage, 92.4 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 81.9 mph), and Slider (7% usage, 85.8 mph). Known for his ability to mix speeds and locations, Kelly faces a Cardinals lineup that averages .265 this season but projects to .2512 against his arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Cardinals have a season average of .265 but project to .2512 against Kelly. Notable changes include Nolan Arenado, who sees a modest increase: Season BA .2438 → xBA vs. arsenal .272 (+28 points), Season K% 9.6% → Arsenal K% 8.4% (-1.2%). Iván Herrera experiences a significant decrease: Season BA .3148 → xBA vs. arsenal .217 (-98 points), Season K% 19.0% → Arsenal K% 24.3% (+5.3%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Diamondbacks' season average of .272 drops to a projected .2425 against Mikolas. Corbin Carroll sees a slight boost: Season BA .2477 → xBA vs. arsenal .279 (+31 points), Season K% 25.9% → Arsenal K% 27.5% (+1.6%). Josh Naylor sees a decrease: Season BA .2913 → xBA vs. arsenal .247 (-44 points), Season K% 12.5% → Arsenal K% 19.6% (+7.1%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
For the Cardinals, their projected K-rate is 20.0% vs. Kelly, up 1.0% from their 19.0% season average. This indicates a slight increase in strikeout potential. The Diamondbacks, however, see their projected K-rate rise significantly to 22.2% vs. Mikolas, up 4.4% from their 17.8% season average, highlighting a potential value in strikeout props.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern. Without specific umpire tendencies, analysis of strikeout or walk influences is limited.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No Cardinals batter meets the criteria of an xBA greater than .300 with a boost over +20 points. Similarly, for the Diamondbacks, no batter exceeds the .300 xBA threshold with the requisite boost.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Diamondbacks' projected K-rate versus Mikolas is 22.2%, which is an increase of 4.4% from their season average. Despite the increase, it does not meet the 25% threshold needed for a lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup. Given the lack of individual or team-based leans, bettors should approach this game with caution and potentially look for live betting opportunities as the game develops.
