Written by: Michael Rivera
Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.
Brewers vs Pirates: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 07)
Last updated: September 07, 2025Game Time: 9/7, 01:35PM
Game Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers head to Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates in a divisional matchup. With the Brewers positioned as a -150 favorite and 88% of the money backing them, the Pirates sit as +123 underdogs according to DraftKings. This matchup presents intriguing pitcher-batter dynamics that could sway the outcome.
Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Jacob Misiorowski vs Bubba Chandler
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL):
- Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (55% usage, 99.3 mph), Slider (26% usage, 94.2 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 87.1 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 92.2 mph)
Jacob Misiorowski is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying on a fastball-slider combination that challenges hitters with high speed and movement. The Pirates' lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .247 against Misiorowski’s arsenal, indicating a slight disadvantage for the home team.
Bubba Chandler (PIT):
- Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage, 98.7 mph), Slider (20% usage, 88.9 mph), Changeup (17% usage, 91.6 mph), Curveball (6% usage, 85.0 mph)
Bubba Chandler features a similar velocity-based approach with a fastball that dominates his pitch mix. The Brewers’ lineup, which averages .250, projects to .258 against Chandler’s offerings, suggesting they may find more success than the Pirates against the opposing starter.
Batting Edges vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Brewers vs Bubba Chandler:
- The Brewers' lineup averages .250 this season but projects to .258 vs Chandler's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .240 → xBA vs arsenal .295 (+55 points), Season K% 18.5% → Arsenal K% 18.5% (+0.0%)
- Biggest Decrease: Brice Turang: Season BA .292 → xBA vs arsenal .267 (-25 points), Season K% 22.0% → Arsenal K% 24.3% (+2.3%)
For Pirates vs Jacob Misiorowski:
- The Pirates' lineup averages .253 this season and projects to .247 vs Misiorowski's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Jared Triolo: Season BA .223 → xBA vs arsenal .268 (+45 points), Season K% 18.5% → Arsenal K% 17.3% (-1.2%)
- Biggest Decrease: Henry Davis: Season BA .245 → xBA vs arsenal .160 (-85 points), Season K% 28.7% → Arsenal K% 39.4% (+10.7%)
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.8% vs Bubba Chandler — up 1.3% from their 19.5% season average.
- The Pirates' projected K-rate is 26.3% vs Jacob Misiorowski — up 3.7% from their 22.6% season average.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Andrew Vaughn (.240 → .295, +55 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No significant strikeout prop opportunities meet our strict betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Andrew Vaughn presents a strong batting prop opportunity with a significant projected increase in xBA.
- The Pirates face a tough matchup against Misiorowski, with a notable increase in strikeout rate.
- With no umpire assignment available, betting on prop volatility could be risky.
- Overall, the Brewers have a slight edge, especially with Vaughn's potential to exceed expectations.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Brewers vs Pirates game? A: Andrew Vaughn is the standout prop with a projected xBA of .295 against Bubba Chandler.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which adds uncertainty to prop volatility.
Q: What time is the Brewers vs Pirates game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/7 at 01:35PM.
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