Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Brewers vs Pirates: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 06)
Last updated: September 06, 2025Game Time: 9/6, 06:40PM
Brief Intro
Tonight, the Milwaukee Brewers head to Pittsburgh to face the Pirates in a matchup that has bettors buzzing. DraftKings lists the Brewers as a −158 favorite against the +129 underdog Pirates, with a striking 86% of the money backing Milwaukee. The game promises a riveting clash, especially on the mound, with Brandon Woodruff facing off against Mitch Keller.
Starting Pitching Analysis
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Woodruff vs Mitch Keller
Brandon Woodruff (MIL):
Brandon Woodruff relies on a diverse arsenal: Sinker (32% usage, 92.9 mph), Four-Seam (32% usage, 93.1 mph), Changeup (19% usage, 83.6 mph), Cutter (12% usage, 89.8 mph), Curveball (4% usage, 78.6 mph), Sweeper (1% usage, 80.7 mph). Known for his velocity and variety, Woodruff is a formidable opponent. However, the Pirates lineup is hitting .253 this season but projects to .267 against Woodruff’s mix, suggesting Pittsburgh could find some success at the plate.
Mitch Keller (PIT):
Mitch Keller brings a powerful pitch mix: Four-Seam (37% usage, 94.0 mph), Sweeper (18% usage, 82.3 mph), Slider (15% usage, 86.9 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 92.8 mph), Curveball (8% usage, 77.4 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 89.1 mph), Cutter (0% usage, 92.4 mph). The Brewers lineup averages .267 this season but may struggle with a projected .259 against Keller’s arsenal, indicating potential challenges for Milwaukee hitters.
Batting Edges vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Brewers vs Mitch Keller:
- The Brewers lineup averages .266 this season but projects to .259 against Keller’s arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .240 → xBA vs arsenal .278 (+38 points), Season K% 18.2% → Arsenal K% 19.9% (+1.7%)
- Biggest Decrease: Sal Frelick: Season BA .297 → xBA vs arsenal .264 (-33 points), Season K% 12.9% → Arsenal K% 14.4% (+1.5%)
For Pirates vs Brandon Woodruff:
- The Pirates lineup averages .254 this season but projects to .267 against Woodruff’s arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Bryan Reynolds: Season BA .246 → xBA vs arsenal .303 (+57 points), Season K% 27.1% → Arsenal K% 20.5% (-6.6%)
- Biggest Decrease: Henry Davis: Season BA .245 → xBA vs arsenal .187 (-58 points), Season K% 28.7% → Arsenal K% 35.6% (+6.9%)
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.3% vs Keller — up 2.1% from their 18.2% season average, indicating potential for higher strikeouts.
- The Pirates' projected K-rate is 20.9% vs Woodruff — down 1.7% from their 22.6% season average, suggesting better contact potential.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Andrew Vaughn (.240 → .278, +38 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Brandon Woodruff strikeout OVER - Pirates' K-rate jumps to 20.9% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Andrew Vaughn shows a favorable batting increase, suggesting a strong prop opportunity.
- Brandon Woodruff's strikeout potential is bolstered against a Pirate lineup with a projected decrease in K-rate.
- Umpire assignment is pending, adding uncertainty to prop betting.
- The Brewers are favored, but Pittsburgh's potential offensive edge against Woodruff should not be overlooked.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Brewers vs Pirates game? A: Andrew Vaughn meets our strict betting criteria with a notable xBA increase against Mitch Keller.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, introducing volatility in prop betting strategies.
Q: What time is the Brewers vs Pirates game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/6 at 06:40PM.
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