August 18, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Brewers vs Cubs: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 18)

Last updated: August 18, 2025

Game Time: 8/18, 02:20PM

Matchup Setup

The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs in a pivotal matchup. With the Cubs listed as -132 favorites and 77% of betting action backing the Brewers as +108 underdogs, this game promises plenty of intrigue for bettors.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Freddy Peralta vs Cade Horton

Freddy Peralta (MIL):

Freddy Peralta brings a velocity-heavy arsenal featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (55% usage, 94.9 mph), complemented by a Changeup (20% usage, 89.1 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 79.5 mph), and Slider (9% usage, 84.1 mph). The Cubs lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .243 against Peralta’s mix, indicating a potential edge for Peralta in this matchup.

Cade Horton (CHC):

Cade Horton counters with a diverse mix: Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage, 95.7 mph), Sweeper (21% usage, 83.7 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 87.8 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 84.0 mph), Sinker (5% usage, 94.9 mph), and Slider (0% usage, 83.4 mph). The Brewers average .258 this season but are projected to hit .247 against Horton's pitches, suggesting a slight advantage for Horton.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Brewers vs Horton: The Brewers lineup averages .258 this season but projects to .247 against Horton’s arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Andrew Vaughn: Season BA .242 → xBA vs arsenal .278 (+36 points), Season K% 18.9% → Arsenal K% 19.3% (+0.4%)
Biggest Decrease: Sal Frelick: Season BA .294 → xBA vs arsenal .255 (-39 points), Season K% 12.8% → Arsenal K% 14.0% (+1.2%)

For Cubs vs Peralta: The Cubs lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .243 against Peralta’s arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Seiya Suzuki: Season BA .249 → xBA vs arsenal .270 (+21 points), Season K% 25.9% → Arsenal K% 27.6% (+1.7%)
Biggest Decrease: Kyle Tucker: Season BA .263 → xBA vs arsenal .179 (-84 points), Season K% 14.6% → Arsenal K% 18.2% (+3.6%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Brewers' projected K-rate is 21.4% vs Horton — up 1.8% from their 19.7% season average, suggesting moderate K prop potential.
The Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.5% vs Peralta — up 4.5% from their 20.1% season average, indicating a strong K prop opportunity for Peralta.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Adam Beck

Adam Beck shows a -3% strikeout tendency and -10% walks, indicating a hitter-friendly environment. This could favor lineups seeking base traffic and run production.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Andrew Vaughn (.242 → .278, +36 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Freddy Peralta strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.5% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Andrew Vaughn presents a strong batting prop opportunity against Cade Horton.
Freddy Peralta has a favorable strikeout setup against a Cubs lineup prone to Ks.
Umpire Adam Beck’s hitter-friendly tendencies could counterbalance pitcher advantages.
Consider K props on Peralta and batting props on Vaughn for strategic bets today.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: Andrew Vaughn presents the best batting prop opportunity with a projected xBA increase against Horton's arsenal.

Q: Is Adam Beck a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Adam Beck leans hitter-friendly with -3% strikeouts and -10% walks.

Q: What time is the Brewers vs Cubs game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/18, 02:20PM.

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---