Game Time: 8/2, 04:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off against the Washington Nationals in an exciting matchup. DraftKings lists the Brewers as -189 favorites, while the Nationals are +154 underdogs, with 84% of the money backing Milwaukee. This game will feature a pitching duel between Brandon Woodruff and Jake Irvin, each bringing a distinct pitching style to the mound.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Woodruff vs Jake Irvin
Brandon Woodruff (MIL):
Woodruff's pitching arsenal includes a Sinker (31% usage, 92.8 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage, 92.9 mph), Changeup (16% usage, 83.6 mph), Cutter (15% usage, 89.6 mph), Curveball (5% usage, 78.9 mph), and a Sweeper (2% usage, 80.6 mph). Known for his mix of speed and precision, Woodruff's varied pitch selection can challenge any lineup. The Nationals lineup, which averages a .250 BA this season, projects a .273 xBA against Woodruff’s arsenal, potentially giving them a slight edge.
Jake Irvin (WSH):
Irvin utilizes a Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage, 92.2 mph), Curveball (30% usage, 77.7 mph), Sinker (20% usage, 91.6 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 85.4 mph), Slider (4% usage, 83.7 mph), and a Cutter (3% usage, 87.2 mph). His approach is more finesse-based, relying on breaking pitches to keep hitters off balance. The Brewers lineup, averaging a .250 BA this season, projects a .239 xBA versus Irvin’s mix, suggesting a potential difficulty in capitalizing on his pitches.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
The Brewers lineup averages .249 this season but projects to .239 against Irvin's arsenal. Andrew Vaughn stands out with a significant increase, moving from a .236 season BA to a projected .318 xBA (+82 points), alongside a decrease in strikeout rate from 20.0% to 12.8% (-7.2%). Conversely, Blake Perkins shows the biggest decrease, dropping from a .250 season BA to a .136 xBA (-114 points), with his strikeout rate jumping from 22.5% to 41.1% (+18.6%).
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
The Nationals lineup averages .251 this season but projects to .273 against Woodruff's arsenal. Jr. García sees a notable increase, with his season BA of .250 improving to a projected .323 xBA (+73 points), while his strikeout rate decreases significantly from 22.5% to 11.5% (-11.0%). On the downside, Josh Bell experiences a decrease, with his season BA of .282 dropping to .264 xBA (-18 points), coupled with a spike in strikeout rate from 13.2% to 18.4% (+5.2%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Brewers' projected K-rate against Irvin is 24.1%, up 3.9% from their 20.2% season average. For the Nationals, their projected K-rate against Woodruff is 19.9%, down 2.7% from their 22.6% season average. These trends suggest a slight lean towards contact for the Nationals and a moderate increase in strikeout risk for the Brewers.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
In evaluating batter performance against the opposing arsenals, Andrew Vaughn (.236 → .318, +82 points) and Jr. García (.250 → .323, +73 points) exceed the .300 threshold with significant boosts, making them potential batting leans.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Brewers' projected K-rate against Irvin does not exceed the 25% threshold and the increase is less than 4%, so no lean there. The Nationals' decrease in strikeout rate also falls out of the lean criteria.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Jr. García - his .323 xBA against Woodruff’s arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +73 point boost. No strikeout props meet our criteria.
