Game Time: 7/21, 09:40 PM
1. Brief Intro
In an exciting matchup, the Milwaukee Brewers head to Seattle to take on the Mariners. With the Mariners favored at -127 and the Brewers as a +104 underdog, bettors are showing a strong preference for Seattle, with 64% of the money backing the home team. This game promises to be a battle of pitching aces, as both teams look to leverage their strengths on the mound.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Woodruff vs. George Kirby
Brandon Woodruff (MIL):
Woodruff brings a diverse arsenal with a Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage, 92.8 mph), Sinker (27% usage, 92.3 mph), Cutter (19% usage, 89.2 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 83.4 mph), Sweeper (5% usage, 80.6 mph), and Curveball (3% usage, 78.7 mph). His style of pitching offers a mix of velocity and deception, making him a formidable opponent. The Seattle lineup averages .260 this season with a projected xBA of .266 against Woodruff's arsenal, indicating a slight edge for the pitcher.
George Kirby (SEA):
Kirby counters with his own dynamic set of pitches: Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage, 96.0 mph), Slider (28% usage, 87.2 mph), Sinker (22% usage, 95.9 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 84.3 mph), Splitter (4% usage, 86.0 mph), and Changeup (2% usage, 87.5 mph). Known for his velocity-heavy approach, Kirby's arsenal challenges hitters to keep up. Milwaukee’s lineup averages .250 for the season, projecting a .262 xBA against Kirby's offerings, suggesting some room for offensive success.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Brewers average .250 this season but project to .262 against Kirby's arsenal. Andrew Vaughn shows the biggest increase with a season BA of .211 → xBA vs. arsenal .311 (+100 points), with a season K% of 20.6% → Arsenal K% 16.2% (-4.4%). Meanwhile, Brice Turang experiences the biggest decrease, with a season BA of .275 → xBA .244 (-31 points), and a K% increase from 21.1% to 22.7% (+1.6%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Mariners average .260 this season, projecting a slight increase to .266 against Woodruff's arsenal. Jorge Polanco has the most significant boost in xBA, with a season BA of .256 → xBA .301 (+45 points), and a K% decrease from 13.6% to 11.6% (-2.0%). Conversely, Julio Rodríguez faces a decrease, with a season BA of .250 → xBA .218 (-32 points), and a K% increase from 22.5% to 24.0% (+1.5%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Brewers' projected K-rate is 20.4% vs. Kirby — up 0.9% from their 19.5% season average, suggesting a slight increase in strikeouts. Meanwhile, the Mariners’ projected K-rate is 19.5% vs. Woodruff — down 1.2% from their 20.7% season average, indicating a potential for more contact.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Andrew Vaughn (.211 → .311, +100) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Jorge Polanco (.256 → .301, +45) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Other batters do not meet the .300 xBA threshold or the +20 point boost.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No significant lean on strikeout props as neither team surpasses the 25% K-rate threshold with a >4% increase.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Andrew Vaughn - his .311 xBA against Kirby's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +100 point boost. Additionally, Jorge Polanco's .301 xBA against Woodruff provides another strong statistical edge.
