Game Time: 7/18, 10:10PM
1. Brief Intro
The Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in a highly anticipated matchup. DraftKings lists the Dodgers as a -194 favorite, while the Brewers are +158 underdogs, with 79% of the betting money backing the Dodgers. This game features intriguing pitcher-batter matchups that could influence your betting decisions.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Quinn Priester vs. Tyler Glasnow
Quinn Priester (MIL):
Priester's arsenal includes a Sinker (43% usage, 93.7 mph), Slider (29% usage, 86.0 mph), Cutter (17% usage, 92.3 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 80.6 mph), Changeup (2% usage, 88.4 mph), and a rarely used Four-Seam (0% usage, 94.9 mph). He's a pitch-mix artist who relies on movement and changing speeds. The Dodgers lineup averages .271 this season, with a projected xBA of .270 against Priester's pitch mix.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD):
Glasnow brings a Four-Seam (44% usage, 95.4 mph), Slider (21% usage, 90.1 mph), Curveball (19% usage, 81.9 mph), and a Sinker (16% usage, 95.7 mph). His velocity-heavy style can overpower hitters. The Brewers lineup averages .252 this season, with a projected xBA of .251 against Glasnow's arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Brewers lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .251 against Glasnow's arsenal. Joey Ortiz shows the biggest increase: Season BA .210 → xBA vs. arsenal .254 (+44 points), Season K% 16.3% → Arsenal K% 19.1% (+2.8%). Brice Turang has the biggest decrease: Season BA .274 → xBA vs. arsenal .245 (-29 points), Season K% 21.2% → Arsenal K% 25.4% (+4.2%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Dodgers lineup averages .271 this season and projects to .271 against Priester's arsenal. Tommy Edman shows the biggest increase: Season BA .223 → xBA vs. arsenal .310 (+87 points), Season K% 16.5% → Arsenal K% 10.9% (-5.6%). Will Smith has the biggest decrease: Season BA .323 → xBA vs. arsenal .270 (-53 points), Season K% 18.3% → Arsenal K% 21.0% (+2.7%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Brewers' projected K-rate is 21.7% vs. Glasnow — up 1.8% from their 19.8% season average. The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 19.5% vs. Priester — down 0.8% from their 20.3% season average. Higher strikeout rates suggest potential K prop value for Glasnow, while lower rates for the Dodgers indicate a contact-focused approach.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Tommy Edman (.223 → .310, +87 points) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
No other batter crosses the .300 xBA and +20 boost threshold.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Brewers 19.8% → 21.7% vs. Glasnow = NO LEAN ❌ (increase < 4%)
Dodgers 20.3% → 19.5% vs. Priester = NO LEAN ❌ (decrease, not increase)
STEP 3: Report findings
"Our final lean would be on Tommy Edman - his .310 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +87 point boost."
CRITICAL EXAMPLES:
Tommy Edman (.223 → .310, +87) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup otherwise.
