Game Time: 7/20, 04:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers in an intriguing matchup that pits two experienced pitchers against each other. Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are favored at -157, while the Brewers come in as +129 underdogs according to DraftKings, with 79% of the money backing the Dodgers. This game promises a classic duel with significant betting angles, particularly in the pitching matchup and lineup advantages.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Jose Quintana vs. Clayton Kershaw
Jose Quintana (MIL):
Sinker (46% usage, 90.3 mph); Changeup (23% usage, 85.4 mph); Curveball (13% usage, 77.8 mph); Four-Seam (10% usage, 90.2 mph); Slurve (9% usage, 78.3 mph). Quintana is a pitch-mix artist who relies on movement and control rather than overpowering velocity. The Dodgers lineup averages .258 this season with a projected xBA of .259 against Quintana's arsenal, indicating a slight edge for the LA hitters.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD):
Slider (42% usage, 85.7 mph); Four-Seam (36% usage, 89.1 mph); Curveball (17% usage, 72.1 mph); Splitter (4% usage, 83.2 mph). Kershaw's combination of a biting slider and deceptive curveball keeps hitters off balance. The Brewers lineup averages .250 this season, projecting a slightly lower .259 xBA against Kershaw's offerings, suggesting a tough challenge for Milwaukee's bats.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Brewers vs. Kershaw:
The Brewers lineup averages .250 this season but projects to .259 against Kershaw's arsenal. Andrew Vaughn stands out with a season BA of .205, improving to an xBA of .318 against Kershaw (+113 points), and a reduced K% from 21.1% to 16.1%. In contrast, Brice Turang's performance may dip, with his season BA of .275 dropping to an xBA of .231 (-44 points) and an increased K% from 21.1% to 27.6%.
For Dodgers vs. Quintana:
The Dodgers lineup has a season average of .268 but projects slightly down to .259 against Quintana's pitching style. Tommy Edman shows potential improvement, with his season BA of .224 increasing to an xBA of .256 (+32 points). Meanwhile, Will Smith could see a decrease, as his BA of .324 drops to an xBA of .273 (-51 points), alongside an increased K% from 17.8% to 21.4%.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Brewers' projected K-rate is 23.2% vs. Kershaw, up 2.8% from their 20.4% season average, indicating potential for Kershaw's strikeout prop value. Conversely, the Dodgers' projected K-rate is 21.0% against Quintana, up from a 17.1% season average, suggesting a modest increase in strikeouts but not significant for strong betting consideration.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Andrew Vaughn stands out with an xBA of .318 against Kershaw, significantly above the .300 threshold, with a +113 point boost from his season average. This makes him a potential lean for a batting prop.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team shows a K% increase greater than 4% above a 25% threshold against the opposing pitcher, so no strong strikeout prop leans are suggested based on the data.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Andrew Vaughn - his .318 xBA against Kershaw's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +113 point boost. No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold for strikeout props in this matchup.
