Game Time: 7/18, 10:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Milwaukee Brewers face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in a late-night showdown at Dodger Stadium. DraftKings has the LA Dodgers as a -182 favorite, while the Milwaukee Brewers are set as +149 underdogs, with 67% of the money backing the LA Dodgers. With such lopsided betting interest, this game deserves a closer look at the pivotal pitching matchups and lineup dynamics.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Quinn Priester vs. Clayton Kershaw
Quinn Priester (MIL):
Quinn Priester's arsenal features a Sinker (43% usage, 93.7 mph), Slider (29% usage, 86.0 mph), Cutter (17% usage, 92.3 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 80.6 mph), Changeup (2% usage, 88.4 mph), and a Four-Seam (0% usage, 94.9 mph). Priester operates with a sinker-heavy repertoire, which aligns with his style as a groundball-inducing pitcher. The Dodgers lineup averages .271 this season, with a projected xBA of .271 against Priester's arsenal, indicating a consistent offensive performance against his pitch mix.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD):
Clayton Kershaw relies on a Slider (42% usage, 85.7 mph), Four-Seam (36% usage, 89.1 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 72.1 mph), Splitter (4% usage, 83.2 mph), and Sinker (0% usage, 89.4 mph). Kershaw's pitch mix showcases his ability to keep hitters off balance with a dominant slider and strategic fastballs. The Brewers lineup has a season average of .252 but projects to .245 against Kershaw's diverse arsenal, suggesting a slight decline in expected performance.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Brewers lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .245 against Kershaw's arsenal. Joey Ortiz stands out with a notable increase: .209 season BA → .245 xBA (+36 points), with a season K% of 16.3% rising slightly to 19.5%. In contrast, Isaac Collins sees the biggest decrease: .259 season BA → .225 xBA (-34 points), with his season K% of 23.68% increasing to 31.2% against Kershaw.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Dodgers lineup averages .271 this season and projects to .271 against Priester. Tommy Edman experiences the most significant increase: .223 season BA → .310 xBA (+87 points), with a reduction in strikeouts from 16.49% to 10.9%. Conversely, Freddie Freeman sees a slight decrease: .297 season BA → .279 xBA (-18 points), but his strikeout rate improves significantly from 22.47% to 16.3%.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Brewers' projected K-rate is 24.34% vs. Kershaw — up 3.82% from their 20.52% season average, indicating a potential rise in strikeouts. The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 19.46% vs. Priester — down 0.83% from their 20.29% season average, which suggests a decrease in strikeouts and potential contact play.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Our analysis highlights Tommy Edman (.223 → .310, +87 points) as a potential lean, meeting both criteria with an impressive xBA above .300 and a boost of over +20 points, suggesting strong batting opportunities against Priester's arsenal.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No significant team strikeout rate meets our criteria for a lean, as neither team exceeds a K% of 25% with an increase of over 4%.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Tommy Edman - his .310 xBA against Priester's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +87 point boost, making him a standout option in this matchup.
