September 20, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Braves vs Tigers: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 20)

Last updated: September 20, 2025

Game Time: 9/20, 01:10PM

Game Overview

The Atlanta Braves face off against the Detroit Tigers in a closely contested matchup. Detroit is the favorite according to DraftKings, with a line of −126, while Atlanta sits as a +104 underdog. Notably, 69% of the betting money is backing the Tigers, reflecting strong public confidence.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Joey Wentz vs Keider Montero

Joey Wentz (ATL):

Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage, 93.4 mph), Slider (27% usage, 85.0 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 79.3 mph), Cutter (9% usage, 86.9 mph), Changeup (2% usage, 86.0 mph)

Joey Wentz is a fastball-heavy pitcher with a diverse pitch mix that relies on velocity and movement. The Detroit lineup averages .255 this season with a projected xBA of .256 against Wentz's arsenal, indicating a slight advantage for the hitters.

Keider Montero (DET):

Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage, 93.9 mph), Slider (23% usage, 84.2 mph), Sinker (20% usage, 93.7 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 79.0 mph), Changeup (12% usage, 86.7 mph), Sweeper (0% usage, 83.7 mph)

Keider Montero uses a balanced mix of pitches with a moderate reliance on fastballs and off-speed offerings. The Braves lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .251 against Montero's repertoire, which suggests a slight edge for Montero.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Atlanta vs Keider Montero:

The Braves lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .251 against Montero's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: II Harris: Season BA .241 → xBA vs arsenal .280 (+39 points), Season K% 20.5% → Arsenal K% 20.1% (-0.4%)
Biggest Decrease: Ha-Seong Kim: Season BA .283 → xBA vs arsenal .228 (-55 points), Season K% 29.8% → Arsenal K% 26.3% (-3.5%)

For Detroit vs Joey Wentz:

The Tigers lineup averages .254 this season with a projected xBA of .256 against Wentz's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Parker Meadows: Season BA .229 → xBA vs arsenal .286 (+57 points), Season K% 25.7% → Arsenal K% 24.6% (-1.1%)
Biggest Decrease: Jahmai Jones: Season BA .263 → xBA vs arsenal .202 (-61 points), Season K% 21.8% → Arsenal K% 43.4% (+21.6%)

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Braves' projected K-rate is 22.7% vs Montero — up 1.9% from their 20.8% season average.
The Tigers' projected K-rate is 25.8% vs Wentz — up 2.2% from their 23.6% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: II Harris (.241 → .280, +39 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Joey Wentz strikeout OVER - Detroit's K-rate jumps to 25.8% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

II Harris shows a significant batting edge against Montero's arsenal, suggesting a strong prop play.
Parker Meadows provides a similar advantage against Wentz, but no betting lean due to lower xBA.
Joey Wentz presents a potential strikeout prop opportunity with a significantly higher projected K-rate.
Umpire uncertainty adds a layer of risk to all prop considerations.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Braves vs Tigers game? A: II Harris is the standout prop opportunity, projecting a significant batting average increase against Montero.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to determine tendencies.

Q: What time is the Braves vs Tigers game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/20 at 01:10PM.

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