September 17, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Braves vs Nationals: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 17)

Last updated: September 17, 2025

Game Time: 9/17, 04:05PM

Today's Setup

The Atlanta Braves head to the nation's capital to face off against the Washington Nationals in an NL East showdown. The Braves are currently favored at -158 with the Nationals positioned as +129 underdogs, according to DraftKings. With 86% of the money backing the Braves, this matchup offers intriguing betting angles, especially in the pitching department.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Hurston Waldrep vs Brad Lord

Hurston Waldrep (ATL):

Waldrep employs a diverse arsenal: Splitter (33% usage, 86.6 mph), Cutter (23% usage, 93.1 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 95.8 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 82.3 mph), Slider (11% usage, 87.2 mph), and a Four-Seam Fastball (3% usage, 95.6 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, Waldrep thrives on keeping batters guessing with a range of velocities and movements. The Nationals' lineup averages .244 this season and projects an xBA of .246 against Waldrep's varied arsenal.

Brad Lord (WSH):

Lord relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage, 94.9 mph), complemented by a Slider (19% usage, 85.5 mph), Sinker (18% usage, 94.5 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 85.9 mph), and an almost-unused Slurve. The Braves' lineup, which averages .253 on the season, sees a slight dip with a projected xBA of .249 against Lord's offerings.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Braves vs Brad Lord: The Braves lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .249 against Lord's arsenal. Key performer insights reveal:

II Harris: Season BA .243 → xBA vs arsenal .280 (+37 points), Season K% 20.1% → Arsenal K% 18.4% (-1.7%)
Ha-Seong Kim: Season BA .283 → xBA vs arsenal .217 (-66 points), Season K% 29.8% → Arsenal K% 26.7% (-3.1%)

For Nationals vs Hurston Waldrep: The Nationals lineup averages .244 this season but sees a slight improvement to .246 vs Waldrep's arsenal. Key performers include:

Jr. García: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .291 (+41 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 17.0% (-5.5%)
Josh Bell: Season BA .273 → xBA vs arsenal .240 (-33 points), Season K% 13.4% → Arsenal K% 22.5% (+9.1%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Braves' projected K-rate is 21.8% vs Brad Lord — up 1% from their 20.8% season average.
The Nationals' projected K-rate is 26.9% vs Hurston Waldrep — up 1.5% from their 25.4% season average, indicating potential K prop value.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Daylen Lile (.291 → .317, +26 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Hurston Waldrep strikeout OVER - Nationals' K-rate jumps to 26.9% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

II Harris and Jr. García present strong batting advantages against their respective opponents.
Hurston Waldrep shows potential for a strikeout-heavy outing given the Nationals' increased K-rate against his arsenal.
Umpire assignment remains unknown, contributing to prop volatility.
Overall, Waldrep's strikeout prop and Daylen Lile's batting prop emerge as key betting opportunities.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Braves vs Nationals game? A: Daylen Lile meets our strict betting criteria, making him a strong prop candidate.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, so tendencies are unknown.

Q: What time is the Braves vs Nationals game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/17, 04:05PM.

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