Game Time: 7/31, 07:10PM
1. Brief Intro
This matchup between the Atlanta Braves and the Cincinnati Reds promises an intriguing battle on the mound. DraftKings positions the Cincinnati Reds as a -164 favorite, whereas the Atlanta Braves come in as a +134 underdog, with 73% of the betting money backing the Reds. Let's delve into the key angles to inform your betting strategy.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Carlos Carrasco vs. Andrew Abbott
Carlos Carrasco (ATL):
Carlos Carrasco's repertoire includes: Slider (27% usage, 84.3 mph), Sinker (22% usage, 90.5 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage, 91.5 mph), Changeup (19% usage, 85.1 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 78.0 mph), and Sweeper (0% usage, 80.8 mph). Carrasco is a pitcher who relies on a diverse mix rather than overwhelming velocity. The Cincinnati Reds lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .247 against Carrasco's arsenal, highlighting a slight disadvantage.
Andrew Abbott (CIN):
Andrew Abbott uses a mix of: Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage, 92.5 mph), Changeup (20% usage, 84.5 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 80.9 mph), Sweeper (12% usage, 82.6 mph), and Cutter (4% usage, 88.4 mph). Abbott's arsenal features a heavy reliance on his fastball, complemented by off-speed pitches. The Atlanta Braves lineup, which averages .242 this season, projects to a .228 xBA against Abbott's pitches.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Atlanta Braves lineup averages .242 this season but projects to .228 against Andrew Abbott's arsenal. The batter with the biggest increase is II Harris: Season BA .231 → xBA vs. arsenal .282 (+51 points), Season K% 19.8% → Arsenal K% 21.6% (+1.8%). Conversely, Austin Riley sees the biggest drop: Season BA .275 → xBA vs. arsenal .212 (-63 points), Season K% 32.5% → Arsenal K% 40.6% (+8.1%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Cincinnati Reds average .253 this season, with a projected .247 xBA against Carlos Carrasco's arsenal. Will Benson shows the largest increase: Season BA .209 → xBA vs. arsenal .300 (+91 points), Season K% 29.1% → Arsenal K% 27.4% (-1.7%). Elly Cruz faces the most significant decrease: Season BA .282 → xBA vs. arsenal .234 (-48 points), Season K% 24.6% → Arsenal K% 30.8% (+6.2%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Braves' projected K-rate is 25.6% versus Andrew Abbott—up 2.5% from their 23.1% season average. Meanwhile, the Reds' projected K-rate is 26.2% versus Carlos Carrasco, a 1.7% increase from their 24.6% season average. Neither team presents a significant prop opportunity based on these marginal increases.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Jurickson Profar, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, and Nick Allen do not meet criteria with their xBA projections all below .300. II Harris (.231 → .282, +51 points) does not exceed the .300 threshold. Will Benson (.209 → .300, +91 points) meets the criteria, showing a potential lean on his batting performance.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team meets the criteria for strikeout prop opportunities as both projected increases are under 4%.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Will Benson - his .300 xBA against this arsenal is above our .300 threshold with a significant +91 point boost. No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold regarding strikeout props in this matchup.
