Game Time: 7/11, 08:15 PM
1. Brief Intro
Tonight's matchup between the Atlanta Braves and the St. Louis Cardinals presents an intriguing battle at Busch Stadium. With the betting line favoring the Cardinals at -123, and the Braves as +101 underdogs, 62% of the money is backing the home team. This game is poised to capture the attention of bettors, especially given the pitching matchup and lineup dynamics.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Grant Holmes vs. Matthew Liberatore
Grant Holmes (ATL):
Holmes brings a diverse arsenal: Slider (35% usage, 85.5 mph), Four-Seam (34% usage, 94.5 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 83.5 mph), Cutter (14% usage, 92.2 mph), Changeup (1% usage, 90.2 mph). He is a pitch-mix artist, using a variety of pitches to keep hitters off balance. The Cardinals lineup averages .252 this season, with a projected xBA of .253 against Holmes' offerings, indicating a fairly neutral matchup.
Matthew Liberatore (STL):
Liberatore's pitch selection includes a Four-Seam (27% usage, 94.3 mph), Slider (22% usage, 86.5 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 77.9 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 88.9 mph), Cutter (13% usage, 90.3 mph), and Sinker (11% usage, 94.2 mph). His approach features a balanced mix with a focus on off-speed pitches. The Braves lineup averages .240 this season but projects a slight increase to .245 against his arsenal, suggesting a modest challenge for Liberatore.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Braves lineup averages .240 this season and projects to .245 against Liberatore's arsenal. Marcell Ozuna shows the biggest increase, from a .239 season BA to a .270 xBA (+31 points), with a slight K% decrease from 22.6% to 21.4%. Austin Riley experiences the biggest decrease, from a .279 season BA to a .243 xBA (-36 points), with a K% rise from 31.9% to 34.4%.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Cardinals lineup averages .252 this season and is expected to hit .253 against Holmes. Nolan Arenado shows a notable increase, from a .244 season BA to a .266 xBA (+22 points), with a K% decrease from 10.0% to 8.7%. Pedro Pagés sees the biggest decrease, from a .250 season BA to a .212 xBA (-38 points), with a K% increase from 22.5% to 24.6%.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Braves' projected K-rate is 24.8% vs. Liberatore, up 0.9% from their 23.9% season average, indicating potential for strikeout prop value. The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 20.2% vs. Holmes, up 0.6% from their 19.6% season average, presenting a slight increase in strikeout potential.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No significant batting leans emerge as no batter meets the criteria of an xBA greater than .300 with a boost exceeding +20 points.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Both the Braves' and Cardinals' projected strikeout rates do not meet the criteria for a strong lean (K% > 25% AND increase > 4%).
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup. Without strong leans on individual batter or pitcher props, bettors may want to consider other angles or await further data.
