August 31, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

BAL vs SF: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 31)

Last updated: August 31, 2025

Game Time: TBD

Brief Intro

The Baltimore Orioles are set to face the San Francisco Giants in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. With both teams boasting unique pitching arsenals, this game offers several angles for bettors to consider, especially given the lack of available betting odds at the moment.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Tomoyuki Sugano vs Justin Verlander

Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL):

Sugano brings a diverse pitching arsenal to the mound with a unique mix of pitches: Splitter (24% usage, 87.3 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage, 92.6 mph), Sweeper (19% usage, 83.6 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 92.8 mph), Cutter (13% usage, 88.1 mph), and Curveball (10% usage, 78.2 mph). Sugano is a pitch-mix artist who relies on variety rather than sheer velocity. Against Sugano's arsenal, the Giants' lineup has struggled, averaging .234 this season with a projected xBA of .235.

Justin Verlander (SF):

Verlander, a power pitcher with a dominant Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 94.2 mph), also utilizes a Slider (24% usage, 87.5 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 78.8 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 84.9 mph), Sweeper (6% usage, 80.5 mph), and an occasional Sinker. The Orioles' lineup has been more effective, averaging .243 this season but projects to .254 against Verlander's arsenal.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For BAL vs Justin Verlander: The Orioles lineup averages .243 this season but projects to .254 against Verlander's offerings.

Biggest Increase: Samuel Basallo: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .320 (+70 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 16.5% (-6.0%)
Biggest Decrease: Jeremiah Jackson: Season BA .278 → xBA vs arsenal .243 (-35 points), Season K% 19.96% → Arsenal K% 24.8% (+4.84%)

For SF vs Tomoyuki Sugano: The Giants lineup averages .245 this season but projects to .235 against Sugano's pitches.

Biggest Increase: No significant increases.
Biggest Decrease: Luis Matos: Season BA .224 → xBA vs arsenal .172 (-52 points), Season K% 14.84% → Arsenal K% 23.3% (+8.46%)

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Orioles' projected K-rate is 25.62% vs Verlander — up 1.71% from their 23.91% season average.
The Giants' projected K-rate is 24.48% vs Sugano — up 2.22% from their 22.26% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: TBA Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Samuel Basallo (.250 → .320, +70 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Tomoyuki Sugano strikeout OVER - Giants' K-rate jumps to 24.48% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Samuel Basallo shows a significant projected increase in performance against Verlander, making him a strong prop candidate.
Tomoyuki Sugano's pitch mix presents a challenge for the Giants, with increased strikeout potential.
Betting opportunities are limited by the lack of umpire data, but Sugano’s strikeouts and Basallo’s hitting provide potential angles.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the BAL vs SF game? A: Samuel Basallo shows a strong statistical edge with a projected xBA increase to .320.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, leading to uncertainty in prop predictions.

Q: What time is the BAL vs SF game? A: Game time is TBD.

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---