Invisible Insider
July 15, 2025
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ATH at CLE MLB Betting Preview

Game Time: TBD

1. Brief Intro

As the ATH take on the CLE, both teams will look to leverage their pitching strengths and lineup matchups to secure a win. Without available betting odds, this game presents an intriguing challenge for bettors looking at individual player props and team performances.

2. Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: JP Sears vs. Slade Cecconi
JP Sears (ATH):

JP Sears brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with a Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 92.3 mph), Sweeper (28% usage, 79.0 mph), Changeup (16% usage, 83.2 mph), Slider (12% usage, 80.2 mph), and Sinker (5% usage, 90.2 mph). Sears is a pitch-mix artist who can keep hitters off balance. However, the CLE lineup averages .227 this season with a projected xBA of .227 against Sears' repertoire, indicating a potential struggle for CLE to find success at the plate.

Slade Cecconi (CLE):

Slade Cecconi also utilizes a varied arsenal featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 94.4 mph), Slider (25% usage, 84.1 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 75.1 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 93.3 mph), Changeup (6% usage, 83.9 mph), Cutter (1% usage, 89.3 mph), and Sweeper (0% usage, 82.0 mph). His ability to change speeds and angles could be pivotal. The ATH lineup, which averages .256 this season, projects to a .236 xBA against Cecconi's arsenal, suggesting that Cecconi might have the upper hand.

3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:

The ATH lineup averages .257 this season but projects to .236 against Cecconi's arsenal. Notably, Jacob Wilson sees the biggest decrease: Season BA .332 → xBA vs. arsenal .225 (-107 points), Season K% 7.65% → Arsenal K% 27.7% (+20.05%). Brent Rooker shows minor changes: Season BA .279 → xBA vs. arsenal .277 (-2 points), Season K% 21.60% → Arsenal K% 26.2% (+4.60%).

For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:

The CLE lineup averages .228 this season and projects to .227 against Sears' arsenal. José Ramírez stands out with improvement: Season BA .250 → xBA vs. arsenal .325 (+75 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 16.2% (-6.3%). Conversely, David Fry sees a decline: Season BA .149 → xBA vs. arsenal .106 (-43 points), Season K% 41.10% → Arsenal K% 40.3% (-0.80%).

4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The ATH's projected K-rate is 26.79% vs. Cecconi — up 3.13% from their 23.66% season average, indicating a potential increase in strikeouts. Meanwhile, the CLE's projected K-rate is 24.99% vs. Sears — up 3.35% from their 21.64% season average, suggesting a moderate strikeout risk.

5. Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: TBA

Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean

Final Lean & Betting Takeaway

STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:

STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
José Ramírez (.250 → .325, +75 points) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
No other batter meets the criteria for a lean.

STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No team K% meets the criteria for a lean as neither exceeds the 25% threshold with a sufficient increase.

STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on José Ramírez - his .325 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +75 point boost.

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