Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Astros vs Jays: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 10)
Last updated: September 10, 2025
Game Time: 9/10, 07:07PM
Game Overview
The Houston Astros travel to Toronto to face the Blue Jays in a key matchup. DraftKings lists the Blue Jays as -137 favorites, with the Astros as +112 underdogs, and a significant 80% of the betting money backing Toronto. This game will likely hinge on the pitching duel and the ability of each lineup to handle the opponent's arsenal.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Jason Alexander vs José Berríos
Jason Alexander (HOU):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage, 90.7 mph), Sweeper (22% usage, 80.2 mph), Sinker (18% usage, 90.4 mph), Cutter (18% usage, 86.9 mph), Changeup (16% usage, 83.3 mph)
Jason Alexander brings a diverse pitch mix to the mound. His velocity is not overpowering, but his varied arsenal can keep hitters off balance. The Blue Jays lineup has been successful against pitchers like Alexander, averaging .288 this season with a projected xBA of .288 against his arsenal.
José Berríos (TOR):
- Arsenal: Sinker (32% usage, 92.1 mph), Slurve (26% usage, 82.5 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage, 93.0 mph), Changeup (17% usage, 85.2 mph), Cutter (6% usage, 89.5 mph)
José Berríos relies on a strong sinker and a deceptive slurve to dominate hitters. His mix of speed and movement has been effective, as the Astros lineup averages .250 this season but only projects to .241 against his pitches.
Batting Edges vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Astros vs José Berríos:
- Jeremy Peña: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .306 (+56 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 15.7% (-6.8%)
- Jose Altuve: Season BA .263 → xBA vs arsenal .188 (-76 points), Season K% 16.4% → Arsenal K% 23.5% (+7.1%)
For the Blue Jays vs Jason Alexander:
- Jr. Guerrero: Season BA .301 → xBA vs arsenal .323 (+22 points), Season K% 14.0% → Arsenal K% 15.9% (+1.9%)
- Joey Loperfido: Season BA .358 → xBA vs arsenal .305 (-53 points), Season K% 25.8% → Arsenal K% 23.4% (-2.4%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Astros' Projected K-rate: 22.4% vs José Berríos — down 0.6% from their 23.0% season average.
- Blue Jays' Projected K-rate: 16.7% vs Jason Alexander — down 1.6% from their 18.3% season average.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
- 📢 Prop Alert: Jeremy Peña (.250 → .306, +56 points) meets betting lean criteria!
- 📢 Prop Alert: Jr. Guerrero (.301 → .323, +22 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No significant statistical edges meet our strikeout betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Jeremy Peña and Jr. Guerrero offer valuable batting prop opportunities given their projected performance against the opposing pitchers.
- No significant strikeout prop opportunities were identified, as neither team's K-rate showed a noteworthy increase.
- Umpire assignment is pending, adding an element of uncertainty to prop bets.
- Overall, focus on batting props with significant statistical advantages for the best betting value.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Astros vs Jays game? A: Jeremy Peña and Jr. Guerrero both meet our strict betting criteria based on projected performance.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making it difficult to assess tendencies.
Q: What time is the Astros vs Jays game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/10 at 07:07PM.
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