September 12, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Astros vs Braves: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 12)

Last updated: September 12, 2025

Game Time: 9/12, 07:15PM

Today's Setup

Tonight's matchup features the Houston Astros visiting the Atlanta Braves in what promises to be a tightly contested game. The Astros are currently favored at -137 on DraftKings, while the Braves are at +112, with 59% of the money backing the Braves. Let's break down the key components to help you make informed wagers.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: AJ Blubaugh vs Hurston Waldrep

AJ Blubaugh (HOU):

AJ Blubaugh brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage, 95.0 mph), Sweeper (22% usage, 82.0 mph), Changeup (20% usage, 86.7 mph), Curveball (5% usage, 78.4 mph), Cutter (1% usage, 87.0 mph), and Slider (0% usage, 82.9 mph). Blubaugh is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying on his fastball to set up his secondary pitches. The Braves lineup averages .255 this season with a projected xBA of .240 against Blubaugh's arsenal.

Hurston Waldrep (ATL):

Hurston Waldrep counters with a varied pitch mix: Splitter (33% usage, 86.6 mph), Cutter (23% usage, 93.1 mph), Sinker (18% usage, 95.8 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 82.0 mph), Slider (11% usage, 87.3 mph), and Four-Seam (2% usage, 95.8 mph). Waldrep's mix of velocity and movement aims to keep hitters off balance. The Astros lineup averages .269 this season but projects to .255 against Waldrep's offerings.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Astros vs Hurston Waldrep:

The Astros lineup averages .269 this season but projects to .255 vs Waldrep's arsenal.
Biggest Decrease: Jesús Sánchez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .193 (-57 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 34.6% (+12.1%)
Biggest Increase: Carlos Correa: Season BA .276 → xBA vs arsenal .296 (+20 points), Season K% 19.0% → Arsenal K% 15.6% (-3.4%)

For Braves vs AJ Blubaugh:

The Braves lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .240 vs Blubaugh's arsenal.
Biggest Decrease: Ha-Seong Kim: Season BA .285 → xBA vs arsenal .212 (-73 points), Season K% 29.4% → Arsenal K% 28.6% (-0.8%)
Biggest Increase: II Harris: Season BA .241 → xBA vs arsenal .270 (+29 points), Season K% 20.0% → Arsenal K% 22.9% (+2.9%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Astros' projected K-rate is 21.9% vs Waldrep — up 2.0% from their 19.9% season average.
The Braves' projected K-rate is 23.5% vs Blubaugh — up 2.5% from their 21.0% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: II Harris (.241 → .270, +29 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: AJ Blubaugh strikeout OVER - Braves' K-rate jumps to 23.5% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Carlos Correa and II Harris present favorable batting matchups with significant xBA increases.
AJ Blubaugh's strikeout potential is heightened against a high-risk Braves lineup.
Umpire data is unavailable, adding an element of uncertainty to prop bets.
Overall, consider leaning on Correa's hitting potential and Blubaugh's strikeout upside.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Astros vs Braves game? A: II Harris meets our strict betting criteria with a significant xBA increase against Blubaugh.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making this aspect uncertain.

Q: What time is the Astros vs Braves game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/12, 07:15PM.

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