Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Astros vs Angels: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 26)
Last updated: September 26, 2025Game Time: 9/26, 09:38PM
Game Preview
The Houston Astros take on the Los Angeles Angels in a matchup that's drawing significant attention from bettors. With the Astros positioned as a -150 favorite and commanding 96% of the betting money, they face an Angels team listed as a +123 underdog. This game pits two intriguing pitchers against each other, promising a compelling duel on the mound.
Starting Pitching Analysis
Pitching Matchup: Jason Alexander vs Kyle Hendricks
Jason Alexander (HOU):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage, 90.8 mph), Sweeper (22% usage, 80.2 mph), Sinker (18% usage, 90.5 mph), Cutter (17% usage, 86.9 mph), Changeup (16% usage, 83.3 mph).
- Interpretation: Alexander is a pitch-mix artist, relying on a diverse set of pitches to keep hitters off-balance, though lacking overwhelming velocity.
- Matchup Insight: The Angels lineup averages .227 this season with a projected xBA of .226 against Alexander's arsenal.
Kyle Hendricks (LAA):
- Arsenal: Changeup (38% usage, 79.5 mph), Sinker (38% usage, 86.2 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage, 86.5 mph), Curveball (8% usage, 72.2 mph).
- Interpretation: Hendricks is a finesse pitcher, utilizing a heavy dose of changeups and sinkers to induce weak contact.
- Matchup Insight: The Astros lineup averages .263 this season but projects to .244 against Hendricks' arsenal.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Astros vs Kyle Hendricks:
- Biggest Increase: Carlos Correa: Season BA .274 → xBA vs arsenal .298 (+24 points), Season K% 19.5% → Arsenal K% 18.4% (-1.1%)
- Biggest Decrease: Isaac Paredes: Season BA .257 → xBA vs arsenal .224 (-33 points), Season K% 17.3% → Arsenal K% 21.2% (+3.9%)
For Angels vs Jason Alexander:
- Biggest Increase: Logan O'Hoppe: Season BA .217 → xBA vs arsenal .267 (+50 points), Season K% 31.3% → Arsenal K% 28.2% (-3.1%)
- Biggest Decrease: Denzer Guzman: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .143 (-107 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 47.4% (+24.9%)
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Astros: The projected K-rate is 19.8% vs Hendricks — up 1.1% from their 18.8% season average.
- Angels: The projected K-rate is 28.3% vs Alexander — up 0.9% from their 27.4% season average.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Carlos Correa (.274 → .298, +24 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Kyle Hendricks strikeout OVER - Astros' K-rate jumps to 19.8% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Carlos Correa shows a favorable matchup against Hendricks, making him a strong prop candidate.
- Kyle Hendricks may have a strikeout opportunity as the Astros' projected K-rate is notably higher against his arsenal.
- Umpire uncertainty adds volatility; proceed cautiously with prop bets.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Astros vs Angels game? A: Carlos Correa stands out as the best betting prop with a significant xBA increase against Hendricks.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, which adds uncertainty to prop bets.
Q: What time is the Astros vs Angels game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/26, 09:38PM.
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