Game Time: 7/20, 01:35 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Los Angeles Angels will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, with the game slated to start at 1:35 PM. DraftKings sets the Phillies as a -187 favorite, while the Angels are +152 underdogs, with a significant 82% of the betting money backing the Phillies. This matchup features an intriguing pitching duel between José Soriano for the Angels and Ranger Suárez for the Phillies.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: José Soriano vs. Ranger Suárez
José Soriano (LAA):
Soriano presents a power-heavy arsenal with his Sinker (50% usage, 97.1 mph), complemented by a Curveball (27% usage, 85.1 mph) and a Four-Seam Fastball (8% usage, 97.7 mph). His Slider (8% usage, 88.9 mph) and Splitter (7% usage, 91.9 mph) add depth to his pitch mix. The Phillies lineup, which averages .254 this season, projects to hit .269 against Soriano's repertoire, indicating a slight edge in favor of the Phillies' hitters.
Ranger Suárez (PHI):
Suárez relies more on craft than sheer velocity, using a Sinker (28% usage, 90.5 mph) and Changeup (23% usage, 79.9 mph) to keep hitters off-balance. He also utilizes a Cutter (18% usage, 86.8 mph) and a Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage, 91.8 mph). His Curveball (14% usage, 74.1 mph) and Slider (3% usage, 82.3 mph) round out his selection. The Angels lineup, with a season average of .239, projects to improve to .270 against Suárez, suggesting potential success against his style.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Angels lineup averages .239 this season but projects to hit .270 against Suárez's arsenal. Mike Trout shows the most significant potential increase, improving from a .241 season BA to a .325 xBA, a +84 point boost, with a slight K% decrease. Conversely, Luis Rengifo also shows a notable increase from .234 to .303 xBA, a +69 point boost, with a drop in K%.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Phillies lineup averages .255 this season and projects to .269 against Soriano's offerings. Nick Castellanos stands out with a projected xBA increase from .273 to .324, a +51 point boost, with a decrease in strikeout rate. Brandon Marsh, on the other hand, shows a smaller increase from .250 to .279 xBA, a +29 point boost, with a slight rise in K%.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Angels' projected K-rate is 22.2% against Suárez, down 2% from their 24.2% season average, suggesting fewer strikeouts and a potential contact play. Meanwhile, the Phillies' projected K-rate is 20.7% against Soriano, a slight drop from their 21.9% season average, indicating minimal change in strikeout potential.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Mike Trout (.241 → .325, +84) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Luis Rengifo (.234 → .303, +69) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Nick Castellanos (.273 → .324, +51) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Brandon Marsh (.250 → .279, +29) = NO LEAN ❌ (.279 < .300)
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No team K% meets the criteria for a strikeout prop lean as neither team shows a projected K% greater than 25% with an increase over 4%.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Mike Trout and Luis Rengifo for batting props - their xBA against Suárez’s arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with significant boosts of +84 and +69 points, respectively. Nick Castellanos also provides a strong lean with a boost of +51 points.
CRITICAL EXAMPLES:
Mike Trout (.241 → .325, +84) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Brandon Marsh (.250 → .279, +29) = NO LEAN ❌ (.279 < .300)
