Game Time: 7/22, 07:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Los Angeles Angels are set to face the New York Mets in this intriguing MLB matchup. According to DraftKings, the Mets are favored at -176, with the Angels as +144 underdogs and 69% of the money backing the Mets. This game features a compelling pitching duel and key lineup battles that could sway the outcome.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Hendricks vs. Frankie Montas
Kyle Hendricks (LAA):
Kyle Hendricks relies heavily on his Changeup (38% usage, 79.3 mph) and Sinker (37% usage, 86.2 mph), complemented by a Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage, 86.6 mph) and a Curveball (9% usage, 71.9 mph). Hendricks is a pitch-mix artist who thrives on deception rather than velocity. The Mets lineup averages .249 this season with a projected xBA of .284 against Hendricks' arsenal, suggesting a challenging evening for the Angels' starter.
Frankie Montas (NYM):
Frankie Montas brings a more velocity-heavy approach with his Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage, 95.7 mph), Splitter (19% usage, 86.3 mph), and Slider (18% usage, 86.7 mph). His arsenal is rounded out by a Sinker (16% usage, 95.4 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 91.4 mph), and Sweeper (6% usage, 85.0 mph). The Angels lineup, which averages .239 this season, projects a .254 xBA against Montas, indicating potential for a competitive batting matchup.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Angels lineup averages .239 this season but projects to .254 against Montas' arsenal. Jo Adell sees the biggest increase with his batting average jumping from .243 to .290 (+47 points), while Logan O'Hoppe experiences the biggest decrease from .236 to .240 (+4 points), which is a minimal change.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Mets lineup averages .250 this season and projects an impressive .284 against Hendricks' arsenal. Brett Baty boasts the biggest increase, soaring from .237 to .334 (+97 points), while Francisco Alvarez shows a decrease from .240 to .222 (-18 points), although the latter is a decrease rather than a significant rise.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Angels' projected K-rate is 25.1% against Montas—up 0.4% from their 24.7% season average, suggesting a modest increase in strikeout potential. Conversely, the Mets' projected K-rate is 17.0% against Hendricks—down 2.5% from their 19.5% season average, indicating a lower strikeout risk and potential for more contact.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire Assignment
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern. Without specific umpire tendencies, bettors might exercise caution on over/under strikeout and walk props.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
After examining each batter's projected xBA, no Angels player meets the threshold of an xBA over .300 with a boost greater than +20 points. However, on the Mets side, Brett Baty stands out with his .334 xBA against Hendricks, marking a significant +97 point boost from his season average.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Angels' slight increase in projected strikeout rate does not meet the criteria for a lean, while the Mets' decrease in strikeout rate further suggests a focus on contact rather than strikeout props.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Brett Baty—his .334 xBA against Hendricks' arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +97 point boost, making him a standout candidate for batting props.
Overall, while the Mets are statistically favored, bettors should consider the standout individual performances like Baty's, alongside team trends, to craft informed wagers.
