IND · WR
Josh Downs Fantasy Outlook 2026: Pittman's Targets Have to Land Somewhere
Downs projects for 67.5 receptions and 839 yards with Pittman gone to Pittsburgh, and the market has him 70 picks later than that projection is worth.
The gap, and why it exists
Our board ranks Josh Downs 69 overall with 173.0 implied PPR points. ESPN has him 105. The draft room waits until 139.0 to take him, which creates a surplus of about 70 picks and puts his fair value near 103.
That gap exists because the market is pricing in last season — 58 catches for 566 yards across 16 games — rather than what the depth chart looks like now. Michael Pittman is in Pittsburgh. Alec Pierce is a free agent. Indianapolis entered the offseason with 230 vacated targets and did not replace them with a veteran addition.
The sportsbooks posted Downs at 839 receiving yards for 2026, up from the 700.5 line they gave him last year. That is a 20% increase, and it reflects a book that has adjusted for the volume opening even if the draft room has not caught up yet.
The sportsbooks posted him at 839 receiving yards, up 20% from last season, which means the market has adjusted for Pittman's departure even if the draft room has not.
What he did when the opportunity was there
He caught 72 passes for 803 yards and four touchdowns in 2024, finishing as WR44 in PPR formats. That was on a 17% target share in an offense where Pittman commanded 21% and the backfield ate another 22%.
Then in 2025 the offense added more pass-catchers and his efficiency collapsed. He averaged 9.8 yards per catch, posted zero games over 20 PPR points, and logged nine games under 10. That is not a player the market wants to reach for in August, even if the projection says to.