Jalen Hurts Fantasy Outlook 2026: The Draft Room Wants The 2023 Version Back

The 2023 ceiling is the only thing driving the price

A year ago sportsbooks posted Jalen Hurts at 3,175.5 passing yards, 19.5 passing touchdowns, 600.5 rushing yards, and 12.5 rushing touchdowns. He delivered 3,224 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns, which beat the passing props. He also posted 421 rushing yards and eight rushing scores, missing the rushing props by 179 yards and 4.5 touchdowns.

That gap is the difference between QB3, which the props projected, and QB8, where he finished. The draft room is taking him at 54.0, which assumes the rushing volume comes back. The props disagree.

His rush attempts have dropped from 157 in 2023 to 130 in 2024 to 105 last season. That is not variance. That is a trend, and the sportsbooks are now pricing it in.

Where the rushing prop totals contradict the ADP

Sportsbooks have now posted him at 3,250 passing yards, 22.5 passing touchdowns, 425 rushing yards, and 8.5 rushing touchdowns. That converts to 307.0 implied PPR points and a board rank of 57, with ESPN close behind at 66.

The rushing-yards line of 425 is functionally identical to the 421 he just posted, which means the market looked at a career-low rushing season and decided to price that as the baseline rather than the outlier. Our value model lands his fair pick near 75 — more than a round later than the room is taking him.

The case that dual-threat regression is permanent

The bull case rests on two facts. First, his career-high 25 passing touchdowns last season suggest the offense is shifting toward the pass in ways that could make him more valuable even without the rushing volume. Second, his 2024 season posted 630 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns, which proves the volume is accessible in this offense when game scripts break right.