DJ Moore Fantasy Outlook 2026: Buffalo Trade Arrives After Career-Worst Target Share

What actually happened in Chicago

DJ Moore entered 2025 ranked 28th overall on our board and 49th on ESPN's, reflecting six consecutive seasons as a top-25 fantasy receiver. He finished 79th overall and 35th at the position with 170.2 PPR points, 10 per game across all 17 contests.

The reason was target share. Moore commanded just 16% of Chicago's passing volume, a career low that produced 50 receptions and 682 receiving yards. Sportsbooks had posted him at 81.4 catches and 975.5 yards before the season. He missed the catch line by 31 and the yardage line by 293.

He was not hurt, and his efficiency did not crater. He scored six receiving touchdowns against a 6.5 line and added a rushing score. The problem was that Caleb Williams distributed targets across a deeper receiver room than Moore had seen in his career, and the volume that used to go to him went elsewhere.

The collapse traced to a 16% target share in Chicago, not injury or efficiency, and the Buffalo trade creates a path back to volume without guaranteeing it arrives.

The profile underneath the target drought

Four of Moore's 17 games cleared 20 PPR points, with a ceiling week of 23.4 in Week 12. Eleven games came in under 10, including a Week 10 zero. That boom-bust split is what happens when a receiver with Moore's skill set gets starved for volume but maintains red-zone access.

He is 29 now, which matters mostly because it closes the window on betting a usage correction happens organically. If he were 25, you could project Chicago eventually centering the offense around him. At 29, the correction had to come from outside, and it did: Buffalo traded for him in March.