August 14, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

SEA vs BAL: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 14)

Last updated: August 14, 2025

Game Time: TBD

Game Overview

The Seattle Mariners face off against the Baltimore Orioles in a matchup that highlights some intriguing pitcher-batter dynamics. While the betting odds are not available for this game, the duel between Logan Evans and Tomoyuki Sugano promises to be a strategic battle, with each team looking to exploit specific lineup vulnerabilities.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Logan Evans vs Tomoyuki Sugano

Logan Evans (SEA):

Cutter (27% usage, 87.7 mph), Sweeper (23% usage, 84.0 mph), Sinker (16% usage, 92.8 mph), Changeup (12% usage, 87.2 mph), Four-Seam (11% usage, 92.8 mph), Curveball (10% usage, 81.5 mph)

Logan Evans is a pitch-mix artist with a balanced arsenal that relies heavily on a cutter and sweeper combination. The Baltimore lineup averages .257 this season but projects to a .237 xBA against Evans's diverse pitch offerings.

Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL):

Splitter (24% usage, 87.3 mph), Four-Seam (19% usage, 92.5 mph), Sweeper (18% usage, 83.5 mph), Cutter (14% usage, 88.0 mph), Sinker (14% usage, 92.7 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 78.1 mph)

Sugano's arsenal is defined by a sharp splitter and a variety of fastball types, creating a velocity-heavy approach. The Mariners' lineup averages .256 this season but projects a .241 xBA against Sugano’s pitches.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For SEA vs Tomoyuki Sugano:

The Mariners lineup averages .256 this season but projects to .241 against Sugano's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Dominic Canzone: Season BA .280 → xBA vs arsenal .312 (+32 points), Season K% 20.2% → Arsenal K% 20.5% (+0.3%)
Biggest Decrease: Josh Naylor: Season BA .291 → xBA vs arsenal .242 (-49 points), Season K% 13.9% → Arsenal K% 24.9% (+11.0%)

For BAL vs Logan Evans:

The Orioles lineup averages .257 this season but projects to .237 against Evans's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Dylan Carlson: Season BA .194 → xBA vs arsenal .205 (+11 points), Season K% 22.9% → Arsenal K% 32.3% (+9.4%)
Biggest Decrease: Daniel Johnson: Season BA .313 → xBA vs arsenal .195 (-118 points), Season K% 27.8% → Arsenal K% 18.8% (-9.0%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Mariners' projected K-rate is 25.8% vs Tomoyuki Sugano — up 5.2% from their 20.6% season average.
The Orioles' projected K-rate is 25.6% vs Logan Evans — up 2.5% from their 23.0% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Austin Jones

Austin Jones has a +4% strikeout rate and -2% walk rate, making him a slightly pitcher-friendly umpire. This profile suggests that pitchers could have a slight edge in this matchup.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Dominic Canzone (.280 → .312, +32 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Tomoyuki Sugano strikeout OVER - Mariners' K-rate jumps to 25.8% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Dominic Canzone shows a significant batting edge against Tomoyuki Sugano’s arsenal.
Tomoyuki Sugano has a favorable strikeout prop opportunity against the Mariners.
Umpire Austin Jones presents a slightly pitcher-friendly environment.
Overall, the matchup favors a betting strategy focusing on pitcher advantages.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the SEA vs BAL game? A: Dominic Canzone presents a strong batting prop opportunity against Sugano’s arsenal.

Q: Is Austin Jones a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Yes, slightly pitcher-friendly with a +4% strikeout boost.

Q: What time is the SEA vs BAL game? A: Game time is TBD.

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