September 30, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Sox vs Yankees: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 30)

Last updated: September 30, 2025

Game Time: 9/30, 06:08PM

Matchup Setup

The Boston Red Sox travel to the Bronx to take on the New York Yankees in a classic AL East rivalry. DraftKings has the Yankees as a -136 favorite, while the Red Sox are +111 underdogs, with 54% of the betting public backing Boston. This matchup features two talented pitchers, Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox and Max Fried for the Yankees, each with unique styles that could dictate the pace of play.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Garrett Crochet vs Max Fried

Garrett Crochet (BOS):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage, 96.4 mph), Cutter (28% usage, 90.9 mph), Sweeper (16% usage, 82.7 mph), Sinker (16% usage, 96.0 mph), Changeup (4% usage, 87.7 mph)
Interpretation: Crochet is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a mix of power pitches, primarily using his fastball and cutter to dominate hitters.
Matchup Insight: The Yankees lineup averages .276 this season with a projected xBA of .276 against Crochet's arsenal, suggesting they could match up well against his heat.

Max Fried (NYY):

Arsenal: Cutter (28% usage, 93.6 mph), Sinker (18% usage, 94.0 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 75.2 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage, 95.8 mph), Sweeper (12% usage, 81.5 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 85.2 mph), Slider (2% usage, 85.3 mph)
Interpretation: Fried is a pitch-mix artist, effectively using a variety of pitches to keep hitters off balance.
Matchup Insight: The Red Sox lineup averages .258 this season but projects to just .258 against Fried's varied arsenal.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Red Sox vs Max Fried:

The Red Sox lineup averages .272 this season but projects to .258 vs Fried's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: None meet the criteria with significant changes.
Biggest Decrease: Alex Bregman: Season BA .273 → xBA vs arsenal .249 (-24 points), Season K% 14.1% → Arsenal K% 14.8% (+0.7%)

For Yankees vs Garrett Crochet:

The Yankees lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .277 vs Crochet's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Aaron Judge: Season BA .331 → xBA vs arsenal .365 (+34 points), Season K% 23.6% → Arsenal K% 20.5% (-3.1%)
Biggest Decrease: None meet the criteria with significant changes.

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

For the Red Sox:

Their projected K-rate is 17.9% vs Fried — down 3.0% from their 21.0% season average, suggesting a potential contact advantage.

For the Yankees:

Their projected K-rate is 21.2% vs Crochet — down 1.9% from their 23.1% season average, indicating less strikeout risk than usual.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Aaron Judge (.331 → .365, +34 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No qualifying strikeout props meet our betting threshold in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Aaron Judge has a significant batting edge against Crochet, worthy of prop consideration.
No standout pitcher prop opportunities due to decreased K-rates for both lineups.
Umpire assignment is unannounced, adding variability to potential betting outcomes.
Overall, betting on Aaron Judge's performance offers the best statistical edge.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the BOS vs NYY game? A: Aaron Judge is the standout prop candidate, with a projected boost in batting average against Garrett Crochet.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is "TBA", making it difficult to predict umpire tendencies.

Q: What time is the BOS vs NYY game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/30 at 06:08PM.

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