August 23, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

Rockies vs Pirates: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 23)

Last updated: August 23, 2025

Game Time: 8/23, 06:40PM

Today's Setup

Tonight, the Colorado Rockies take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in a matchup that has DraftKings listing the Pirates as a -172 favorite, with the Rockies sitting as +140 underdogs. An overwhelming 83% of the betting money is backing the Pirates, indicating strong public confidence in the home team.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Kyle Freeland vs Mike Burrows

Kyle Freeland (COL):

Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage, 91.7 mph), Curveball (25% usage, 82.8 mph), Cutter (15% usage, 87.6 mph), Sweeper (13% usage, 83.8 mph), Sinker (8% usage, 91.4 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 86.5 mph).

Freeland is a pitch-mix artist with a blend of speeds and movements designed to keep hitters off balance. The Pirates lineup averages .237 this season, with a projected xBA of .248 against Freeland's arsenal, indicating a slight edge for the hitters.

Mike Burrows (PIT):

Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage, 95.4 mph), Changeup (23% usage, 87.0 mph), Slider (20% usage, 86.6 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 78.2 mph), Sinker (3% usage, 95.5 mph).

Burrows is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying on his high-speed four-seamer and sinker to overpower batters. The Rockies lineup, which averages .273 this season, projects to a lower .242 xBA against Burrows' arsenal, showing a potential challenge for Colorado's hitters.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Rockies vs Mike Burrows: The Rockies lineup averages .273 this season but projects to .242 vs Burrows' arsenal. Key performance shifts include:

Brenton Doyle: Season BA .244 → xBA vs arsenal .273 (+29 points), Season K% 24.6% → Arsenal K% 25.9% (+1.3%).
Orlando Arcia: Season BA .299 → xBA vs arsenal .195 (-104 points), Season K% 13.4% → Arsenal K% 37.9% (+24.5%).

For Pirates vs Kyle Freeland: The Pirates lineup averages .238 this season but projects to .248 vs Freeland's arsenal. Key performance shifts include:

Alexander Canario: Season BA .197 → xBA vs arsenal .253 (+56 points), Season K% 32.3% → Arsenal K% 31.6% (-0.7%).
Tommy Pham: Season BA .263 → xBA vs arsenal .230 (-33 points), Season K% 22.4% → Arsenal K% 28.6% (+6.2%).

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Rockies' projected K-rate is 27.4% vs Burrows — up 3.5% from their 23.8% season average.
The Pirates' projected K-rate is 25.0% vs Freeland — up 1.5% from their 23.5% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Brenton Doyle (.244 → .273, +29 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No K Prop Alerts for this matchup as no significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Brenton Doyle shows a notable batting advantage against Burrows, meeting our prop betting criteria.
No strikeout prop opportunities meet our criteria based on current data.
Umpire data is unavailable, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
The Pirates are favored with a significant public backing, but Rockies hitters have potential to challenge Burrows.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Rockies vs Pirates game? A: Brenton Doyle is a strong prop candidate with a projected boost in batting average.

Q: Is the umpire for this game a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making it difficult to assess tendencies.

Q: What time is the Rockies vs Pirates game? A: 8/23, 06:40PM

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