August 22, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Rockies vs Pirates: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 22)

Last updated: August 22, 2025

Game Time: 8/22, 06:40PM

Game Overview

The Colorado Rockies travel to PNC Park to face the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates are heavy favorites at -197, with a significant 70% of betting money backing them. The Rockies, meanwhile, are underdogs at +160. This matchup pits two distinct pitching styles against each other, promising an intriguing contest.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Antonio Senzatela vs Braxton Ashcraft

Antonio Senzatela (COL):

Antonio Senzatela brings a diverse arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.8 mph), Slider (21% usage, 86.7 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 80.2 mph), Changeup (8% usage, 87.4 mph), and Sinker (4% usage, 95.0 mph). As a velocity-heavy pitcher, Senzatela relies on his fastball, complemented by breaking balls to disrupt timing. The Pirates lineup averages .235 this season with a projected xBA of .252 against Senzatela’s offerings.

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT):

Braxton Ashcraft is more of a power pitcher, utilizing a two-pitch combination: Cutter (54% usage, 97.1 mph) and Slider (46% usage, 89.9 mph). This approach makes him formidable in overpowering hitters. The Rockies lineup, who average .274 this season, project to hit .281 against Ashcraft's streamlined but effective arsenal.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Rockies vs Ashcraft: The Rockies lineup averages .274 this season but projects to .281 against Ashcraft's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Ezequiel Tovar: Season BA .272 → xBA vs arsenal .375 (+104 points), Season K% 23.9% → Arsenal K% 18.8% (-5.1%)
Biggest Decrease: Tyler Freeman: Season BA .303 → xBA vs arsenal .282 (-21 points), Season K% 22.0% → Arsenal K% 14.5% (-7.5%)

For Pirates vs Senzatela: The Pirates lineup averages .235 this season, projecting to .252 against Senzatela's pitching.

Biggest Increase: Bryan Reynolds: Season BA .245 → xBA vs arsenal .283 (+38 points), Season K% 26.9% → Arsenal K% 28.8% (+1.9%)
Biggest Decrease: Nick Gonzales: Season BA .281 → xBA vs arsenal .246 (-35 points), Season K% 17.6% → Arsenal K% 23.9% (+6.3%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Rockies' projected K-rate is 19.4% vs Ashcraft — down 4.3% from their 23.6% season average.
The Pirates' projected K-rate is 24.1% vs Senzatela — up 1.5% from their 22.6% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Ezequiel Tovar (.272 → .375, +104 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold for strikeout props in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Ezequiel Tovar presents a strong batting edge over Braxton Ashcraft, making him a key player to watch.
The Pirates lineup shows vulnerabilities, particularly with Nick Gonzales facing a tough matchup against Senzatela.
No umpire data means increased uncertainty in prop bets.
Focus on individual batter props rather than strikeout props due to lineup trends.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Rockies vs Pirates game? A: Ezequiel Tovar offers the most potential, with a significant boost in xBA against Braxton Ashcraft.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, increasing the uncertainty for prop bets.

Q: What time is the Rockies vs Pirates game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/22 at 06:40PM.

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