August 27, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Reds vs Dodgers: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 27)

Last updated: August 27, 2025

Game Time: 8/27, 08:40PM

Today's Setup

The Cincinnati Reds are set to face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers, with the Dodgers positioned as the favorites. DraftKings currently lists the LA Dodgers at -208, while the Cincinnati Reds sit as +168 underdogs, with an intriguing 66% of the betting money favoring the Reds. This matchup is poised to be a battle of pitching duels and strategic lineups.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Nick Lodolo vs Shohei Ohtani

Nick Lodolo (CIN):

Nick Lodolo brings a diverse pitching arsenal with a Curveball (29% usage, 82.0 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage, 93.7 mph), Sinker (22% usage, 93.8 mph), and Changeup (22% usage, 87.9 mph). Lodolo's approach relies heavily on his curveball to keep batters off balance, complemented by a solid fastball and sinker combination.

The Dodgers lineup averages .275 this season, with a projected xBA of .250 against Lodolo's arsenal, indicating a potential advantage for Lodolo to limit hits.

Shohei Ohtani (LAD):

Shohei Ohtani features an impressive array of pitches: Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 98.2 mph), Sweeper (29% usage, 84.7 mph), Slider (13% usage, 87.6 mph), Sinker (8% usage, 96.2 mph), Cutter (4% usage, 93.9 mph), Splitter (3% usage, 90.8 mph), and Curveball (3% usage, 76.0 mph). Ohtani's velocity and pitch variety make him a formidable opponent on the mound.

The Reds lineup averages .257 this season but projects a slightly lower .243 against Ohtani's pitching style, suggesting that Ohtani could maintain control over the game.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Cincinnati vs Shohei Ohtani: The Reds lineup averages .257 this season but projects to .243 against Ohtani’s arsenal. Key performers show:

Biggest Increase: Jose Trevino: Season BA .244 → xBA vs arsenal .297 (+53 points), Season K% 12.1% → Arsenal K% 12.1% (+0.0%)
Biggest Decrease: Noelvi Marte: Season BA .290 → xBA vs arsenal .252 (-38 points), Season K% 15.0% → Arsenal K% 20.8% (+5.8%)

For Los Angeles vs Nick Lodolo: The Dodgers lineup averages .275 this season, projecting a .250 against Lodolo’s mix. Key changes include:

Biggest Increase: Data not available
Biggest Decrease: Freddie Freeman: Season BA .302 → xBA vs arsenal .254 (-48 points), Season K% 21.4% → Arsenal K% 13.0% (-8.4%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Reds' projected K-rate is 23.8% vs Ohtani — up 3.0% from their 20.8% season average.
The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 22.5% vs Lodolo — up 4.0% from their 18.6% season average.

These increases suggest potential value in strikeout props, particularly for Ohtani.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jose Trevino (.244 → .297, +53 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Shohei Ohtani strikeout OVER - Reds' K-rate jumps to 23.8% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Jose Trevino shows a notable batting advantage against Ohtani, while Noelvi Marte faces a challenge.
Shohei Ohtani's strikeout potential is heightened with a projected increase in the Reds' K-rate.
The lack of umpire data adds uncertainty to prop betting.
Overall, focus on Ohtani's strikeout potential and Trevino's batting prop.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Reds vs Dodgers game? A: Jose Trevino stands out due to his significant increase in projected batting average against Ohtani's arsenal.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, so conditions are currently unknown.

Q: What time is the Reds vs Dodgers game? A: The game starts at 8/27, 08:40PM.

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