August 24, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Reds vs Diamondbacks: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 24)

Last updated: August 24, 2025

Game Time: 8/24, 04:10PM

Brief Intro

Tonight, the Cincinnati Reds travel to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks in a must-watch MLB matchup. The Arizona Diamondbacks are favored at -136 according to DraftKings, while the Cincinnati Reds come in as +112 underdogs. Interestingly, 82% of the money backs the Reds, highlighting a potential edge in public sentiment.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Brady Singer vs Zac Gallen

Brady Singer (CIN):

Singer brings a diverse pitch arsenal to the mound: Sinker (40% usage, 92.2 mph), Slider (31% usage, 82.5 mph), Four-Seam (12% usage, 91.4 mph), Cutter (10% usage, 87.6 mph), and Sweeper (7% usage, 81.4 mph). Singer's approach combines velocity with movement, making him a dynamic pitcher. However, the Diamondbacks lineup, which averages .262 this season, projects a slightly reduced xBA of .243 against Singer's mix.

Zac Gallen (AZ):

Gallen counters with his own variety: Four-Seam (46% usage, 93.4 mph), Curveball (24% usage, 81.1 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 86.7 mph), Slider (7% usage, 87.9 mph), Cutter (6% usage, 89.4 mph), and Sinker (2% usage, 93.4 mph). Known for his command and pitch mix, Gallen faces a Reds lineup that averages .266 but projects to hit .246 against his arsenal.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Reds vs Zac Gallen: The Reds lineup averages .266 this season but projects to .246 against Gallen's arsenal. Key performers include:

TJ Friedl: Season BA .265 → xBA vs arsenal .226 (-39 points), Season K% 16.5% → Arsenal K% 19.9% (+3.4%)
Elly Cruz: Season BA .276 → xBA vs arsenal .226 (-50 points), Season K% 25.3% → Arsenal K% 30.3% (+5.0%)

For Diamondbacks vs Brady Singer: The Diamondbacks lineup averages .263 this season, projecting a .243 xBA against Singer's arsenal. Notable changes include:

Jr. Gurriel: Season BA .251 → xBA vs arsenal .280 (+29 points), Season K% 14.0% → Arsenal K% 11.4% (-2.6%)
Adrian Castillo: Season BA .243 → xBA vs arsenal .144 (-99 points), Season K% 32.9% → Arsenal K% 41.4% (+8.5%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Reds' projected K-rate is 21.1% vs Zac Gallen — up 1.3% from their 19.8% season average.
The Diamondbacks' projected K-rate is 22.7% vs Brady Singer — up 0.9% from their 21.8% season average.

Higher strikeout projections suggest potential value on pitcher strikeout props, especially for Zac Gallen.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jr. Gurriel (.251 → .280, +29 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No strikeout props meet our betting threshold with both pitchers not surpassing the 25% K-rate increase benchmark.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Key Player Advantages: Jr. Gurriel shows a significant increase in xBA against Singer, making him a standout prop bet.
Pitcher Prop Opportunities: No significant spike in strikeout projections was found, though Gallen's matchup presents a moderate increase.
Umpire Impact: Without an umpire assignment, volatility remains high.
Overall Recommendation: Bet on Jr. Gurriel's performance, but exercise caution on strikeout props due to the lack of significant statistical edges.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Reds vs Diamondbacks game? A: Jr. Gurriel stands out with a projected increase in xBA, meeting our criteria for a betting prop.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, leaving tendencies unknown.

Q: What time is the Reds vs Diamondbacks game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/24, 04:10PM.

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