Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Reds vs Diamondbacks: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 22)
Last updated: August 22, 2025
Game Time: 8/22, 09:40PM
Brief Intro
The Cincinnati Reds travel to face the Arizona Diamondbacks in a late-night showdown. The Diamondbacks are favored at -137, while the Reds are underdogs at +113. Notably, 66% of the betting money backs the Reds, indicating a potential upset in the minds of bettors.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Zack Littell (CIN) vs Ryne Nelson (AZ)
Zack Littell (CIN)
Littell brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring a Slider (29% usage, 87.3 mph), Splitter (28% usage, 83.5 mph), Four-Seam (23% usage, 92.2 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 91.4 mph), and Sweeper (5% usage, 79.8 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, his varied offerings could disrupt the Diamondbacks, who are averaging .265 this season with a projected xBA of .220 against his pitches.
Ryne Nelson (AZ)
Nelson relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (63% usage, 95.6 mph), complemented by a Slider (13% usage, 86.3 mph), Cutter (12% usage, 90.4 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 80.5 mph), and Changeup (4% usage, 86.7 mph). This velocity-heavy approach may challenge the Reds, who average .268 this season but project to a lower .251 against Nelson's arsenal.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Reds vs Ryne Nelson:
- The Reds' lineup averages .268 this season but projects to .251 against Nelson's arsenal.
- Elly Cruz shows the biggest decrease: Season BA .273 → xBA vs arsenal .238 (-35 points), Season K% 25.3% → Arsenal K% 30.5% (+5.2%).
For the Diamondbacks vs Zack Littell:
- The Diamondbacks average .265 this season but project to .221 against Littell's arsenal.
- Pavin Smith has the biggest decrease: Season BA .303 → xBA vs arsenal .238 (-65 points), Season K% 19.7% → Arsenal K% 23.8% (+4.1%).
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Reds' projected K-rate is 18.6% vs Nelson — down 0.5% from their 19.1% season average, indicating potential contact opportunities.
- The Diamondbacks' projected K-rate is 25.3% vs Littell — up 4% from their 21.3% season average, suggesting a possible K prop value.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup. Despite some notable batting decreases, no players or strikeout scenarios satisfy our criteria for strong prop recommendations.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Elly Cruz and Pavin Smith face the largest decreases in expected performance, which could impact their offensive output significantly.
- The Diamondbacks' elevated K-rate against Littell's arsenal suggests potential for strikeout props, but lacks the necessary threshold.
- Umpire information remains unavailable, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
- Overall, no standout betting opportunities emerge from this matchup.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Reds vs Diamondbacks game? A: No players meet our strict betting criteria, based on the current data.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so this information is unavailable at the moment.
Q: What time is the Reds vs Diamondbacks game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/22, at 09:40PM.
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