August 27, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Pirates vs Cardinals: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 27)

Last updated: August 27, 2025

Game Time: 8/27, 07:45PM

Today's Setup

Tonight, the Pittsburgh Pirates head to St. Louis to face the Cardinals. With the Cardinals favored at -194 and the Pirates at +158 underdogs, 62% of the betting money is surprisingly backing the Pirates, indicating potential value in Pittsburgh's underdog status.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Carmen Mlodzinski vs Sonny Gray

Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage, 96.0 mph), Slider (17% usage, 88.6 mph), Sinker (14% usage, 95.7 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 87.6 mph), Sweeper (13% usage, 83.9 mph), Curveball (5% usage, 84.8 mph), Cutter (0% usage, 94.9 mph)

Mlodzinski is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a diverse arsenal, focused on his high-velocity fastball and slider combination. The Cardinals lineup, however, averages .237 this season with a projected xBA of .238 against Mlodzinski's offerings, suggesting a slight challenge for the St. Louis hitters.

Sonny Gray (STL):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage, 91.7 mph), Sweeper (20% usage, 85.0 mph), Curveball (18% usage, 80.1 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 92.3 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 88.0 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 86.2 mph), Slider (2% usage, 84.4 mph)

Gray is a pitch-mix artist with a variety of speeds and movements. The Pirates lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .244 against Gray's versatile pitch selection, indicating a potential dip in performance.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Pirates vs Sonny Gray:

The Pirates' lineup averages .255 this season but projects to .244 vs Gray's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Bryan Reynolds: Season BA .247 → xBA vs arsenal .289 (+42 points), Season K% 27.3% → Arsenal K% 26.7% (-0.6%)
Biggest Decrease: Oneil Cruz: Season BA .273 → xBA vs arsenal .230 (-43 points), Season K% 25.6% → Arsenal K% 32.0% (+6.4%)

For the Cardinals vs Carmen Mlodzinski:

The Cardinals' lineup averages .254 this season but projects to .238 vs Mlodzinski's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: No batter with a significant increase.
Biggest Decrease: Iván Herrera: Season BA .281 → xBA vs arsenal .218 (-63 points), Season K% 20.9% → Arsenal K% 23.7% (+2.8%)

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Pirates' projected K-rate is 24.4% vs Gray — up 2.6% from their 21.8% season average.
The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 24.5% vs Mlodzinski — up 2.4% from their 22.1% season average.

Both teams face increased strikeout risks, leaning towards potential K prop value.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Bryan Reynolds (.247 → .289, +42 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant pitcher prop alerts as neither team's K-rate increase meets our strict betting threshold.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Bryan Reynolds shows a notable boost against Sonny Gray's arsenal, making him a key batting prop consideration.
Both teams exhibit increased strikeout risks, but not enough to meet our pitcher prop criteria.
Umpire data is unavailable, adding uncertainty to prop bets reliant on strike-zone tendencies.
Betting recommendation leans towards exploring Bryan Reynolds' batting props due to his significant xBA increase.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Pirates vs Cardinals game? A: Bryan Reynolds shows a significant advantage, projected to hit .289 against Sonny Gray's arsenal.

Q: Is the umpire likely to be pitcher-friendly? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, adding volatility to prop bets.

Q: What time is the Pirates vs Cardinals game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/27, 07:45PM.

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