August 26, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Pirates vs Cardinals: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 26)

Last updated: August 26, 2025

Game Time: 8/26, 07:45PM

Today's Setup

The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the St. Louis Cardinals in a National League Central clash that sees the Cardinals favored at -131, as per DraftKings odds. The Pirates, as +108 underdogs, will look to upset the odds with Mitch Keller on the mound against the Cardinals' Andre Pallante. With 73% of the betting money backing the Cardinals, the public seems confident in Pallante's handling of the Pirates' lineup.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Mitch Keller vs Andre Pallante

Mitch Keller (PIT):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage, 93.9 mph), Sweeper (18% usage, 82.2 mph), Slider (16% usage, 86.9 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 92.8 mph), Curveball (7% usage, 77.3 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 89.1 mph), Cutter (0% usage, 92.4 mph)

Keller is a pitch-mix artist who relies on a diverse set of offerings to keep hitters off balance. The Cardinals lineup, which averages .258 this season, projects a lower xBA of .242 against Keller's mix.

Andre Pallante (STL):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage, 94.4 mph), Slider (29% usage, 87.5 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 78.1 mph), Sinker (12% usage, 95.0 mph), Sweeper (0% usage, 85.0 mph)

Pallante is a velocity-heavy pitcher, predominantly using his four-seam fastball and slider to overpower hitters. The Pirates lineup, averaging .238 this season, projects a slightly improved xBA of .246 against Pallante's arsenal.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

Pirates vs Andre Pallante:

The Pirates lineup averages .238 this season but projects to .246 vs Pallante's arsenal.
Bryan Reynolds: Season BA .246 → xBA vs arsenal .282 (+36 points), Season K% 27.0% → Arsenal K% 31.0% (+4.0%)
Nick Gonzales: Season BA .279 → xBA vs arsenal .246 (-33 points), Season K% 18.3% → Arsenal K% 21.9% (+3.6%)

Cardinals vs Mitch Keller:

The Cardinals lineup averages .258 this season but projects to .242 vs Keller's arsenal.
Nathan Church: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .279 (+29 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 14.7% (-7.8%)
Iván Herrera: Season BA .279 → xBA vs arsenal .223 (-56 points), Season K% 20.8% → Arsenal K% 23.1% (+2.3%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Pirates' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Pallante — up 2.4% from their 22.4% season average.
The Cardinals' projected K-rate is 22.8% vs Keller — up 1.5% from their 21.3% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Bryan Reynolds (.246 → .282, +36 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Mitch Keller strikeout OVER - Cardinals' K-rate jumps to 22.8% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Bryan Reynolds stands out with a significant projected batting average increase against Pallante.
Mitch Keller's arsenal could exploit the Cardinals' slightly increased strikeout tendencies.
The absence of an announced umpire adds volatility to betting props.
Overall, the Pirates have potential value plays despite being underdogs.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Pirates vs Cardinals game? A: Bryan Reynolds is our recommended betting prop due to his favorable matchup against Pallante.

Q: Is [Umpire Name] a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

Q: What time is the Pirates vs Cardinals game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/26, 07:45PM.

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