August 27, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Padres vs Mariners: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 27)

Last updated: August 27, 2025

Game Time: 8/27, 04:10PM

Game Preview

The San Diego Padres travel to Seattle to face the Mariners in a non-conference matchup. The Mariners are favored by DraftKings at -138, with the Padres listed as +114 underdogs. A significant 59% of the betting public is backing the Mariners to win this matchup, setting the stage for an intriguing contest.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Yu Darvish vs Bryan Woo

Yu Darvish (SD):

Yu Darvish brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, characterized by his ability to mix pitches effectively. His pitch selection includes a Sinker (22% usage, 93.4 mph), Slider (16% usage, 86.0 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 72.7 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage, 93.9 mph), Splitter (13% usage, 86.4 mph), Sweeper (11% usage, 82.6 mph), Cutter (8% usage, 90.9 mph), and Changeup (1% usage, 88.1 mph). Darvish’s style is that of a pitch-mix artist, using a variety of speeds and movements to keep hitters off balance.

The Mariners lineup has struggled against similar arsenals, averaging .250 this season with a projected xBA of .250 versus Darvish's mix, indicating a challenging matchup for Seattle hitters.

Bryan Woo (SEA):

Bryan Woo counters with a velocity-heavy approach, relying primarily on his Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 95.7 mph) and Sinker (26% usage, 95.3 mph). He complements these with a Slider (11% usage, 88.3 mph), Sweeper (9% usage, 84.9 mph), and Changeup (8% usage, 89.7 mph). Woo’s fastball-heavy approach is designed to overpower hitters.

The Padres lineup, however, is batting .271 this season and is projected to improve slightly to .284 against Woo's fastball-centric arsenal, potentially posing a threat to his effectiveness.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Padres vs Bryan Woo:

The Padres lineup averages .271 this season but projects to .284 vs Woo's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Ryan O'Hearn – Season BA .281 → xBA vs Woo .315 (+34 points), Season K% 18.8% → Arsenal K% 16.0% (-2.8%)
Biggest Decrease: Luis Arraez – Season BA .283 → xBA vs Woo .263 (-20 points), Season K% 2.7% → Arsenal K% 2.7% (+0.03%)

For the Mariners vs Yu Darvish:

The Mariners lineup averages .257 this season but projects to .250 vs Darvish's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Jorge Polanco – Season BA .252 → xBA vs Darvish .284 (+32 points), Season K% 15.7% → Arsenal K% 19.0% (+3.3%)
Biggest Decrease: Josh Naylor – Season BA .286 → xBA vs Darvish .243 (-43 points), Season K% 14.3% → Arsenal K% 23.0% (+8.7%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Padres’ projected K-rate is 15.8% vs Woo — down 1.4% from their 17.3% season average. This suggests a potential contact advantage for Padres batters.
The Mariners’ projected K-rate is 24.0% vs Darvish — up 3.8% from their 20.2% season average, indicating potential for increased strikeouts.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Ryan O'Hearn (.281 → .315, +34 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup for strikeout props.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Ryan O'Hearn shows a significant batting advantage against Bryan Woo's arsenal.
Josh Naylor could struggle against Yu Darvish’s diverse pitch mix.
No definitive umpire trends due to unannounced assignment, adding volatility to prop bets.
The Mariners’ increased K-rate vs Darvish suggests potential pitfalls for Seattle hitters.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Padres vs Mariners game? A: Ryan O'Hearn meets our strict betting criteria with a projected significant batting boost.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, adding uncertainty to prop bets.

Q: What time is the Padres vs Mariners game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/27 at 04:10PM.

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