Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Padres vs Mariners: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 26)
Last updated: August 26, 2025Game Time: 8/26, 09:40PM
Today's Setup
The San Diego Padres head to Seattle to take on the Mariners in a late-night showdown. With no betting odds currently available for this game, bettors will need to dig deeper into advanced metrics and player matchups to find an edge.
Rotation Report
Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease vs Luis Castillo
Dylan Cease (SD)
- Arsenal: Slider (43% usage, 89.1 mph); Four-Seam (41% usage, 97.1 mph); Curveball (8% usage, 82.2 mph); Sinker (4% usage, 96.2 mph); Sweeper (2% usage, 84.3 mph); Changeup (1% usage, 77.3 mph)
Dylan Cease is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a diverse arsenal, leveraging primarily his slider and four-seam fastball. The Mariners lineup averages .258 this season, with a projected xBA of .246 against Cease's mix, suggesting potential struggles at the plate.
Luis Castillo (SEA)
- Arsenal: Four-Seam (47% usage, 95.1 mph); Sinker (22% usage, 94.9 mph); Slider (19% usage, 84.6 mph); Changeup (12% usage, 87.3 mph)
Luis Castillo employs a fastball-heavy approach, utilizing his four-seam and sinker to set up the slider and changeup. The Padres lineup averages .270 on the season but projects to a slightly higher .282 against Castillo's pitch selection, hinting at some batting success.
Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For SD vs Luis Castillo:
- The Padres lineup averages .270 this season and projects to .282 vs Castillo's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Ryan O'Hearn: Season BA .278 → xBA vs arsenal .307 (+29 points), Season K% 18.8% → Arsenal K% 18.0% (-0.8%)
- Biggest Decrease: Luis Arraez: Season BA .286 → xBA vs arsenal .264 (-22 points), Season K% 2.7% → Arsenal K% 2.9% (+0.2%)
For SEA vs Dylan Cease:
- The Mariners lineup averages .258 but projects to .246 vs Cease's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Jorge Polanco: Season BA .252 → xBA vs arsenal .292 (+40 points), Season K% 15.8% → Arsenal K% 17.0% (+1.2%)
- Biggest Decrease: Josh Naylor: Season BA .284 → xBA vs arsenal .223 (-61 points), Season K% 14.2% → Arsenal K% 19.4% (+5.2%)
Contact vs Strikeout Profile
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Padres: The projected K-rate is 16.7% vs Castillo — down 0.5% from their 17.3% season average, indicating a potential contact advantage.
- Mariners: The projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Cease — up 4.8% from their 19.9% season average, signaling a significant strikeout risk.
Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Ryan O'Hearn (.278 → .307, +29 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Dylan Cease strikeout OVER - Mariners' K-rate jumps to 24.7% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Ryan O'Hearn of the Padres shows a strong batting edge against Castillo, warranting a prop consideration.
- Dylan Cease faces a Mariners lineup with a heightened strikeout profile, suggesting a potential K prop play.
- Umpire assignment remains unknown, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
- Overall, the Padres' lineup may have a slight upper hand against Castillo, whereas the Mariners could struggle against Cease's velocity.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the SD vs SEA game? A: Ryan O'Hearn is the standout player meeting our strict betting criteria against Luis Castillo.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to assess tendencies.
Q: What time is the SD vs SEA game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/26, 09:40PM.
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