Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Mets vs Nationals: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 21)
Last updated: August 21, 2025
Game Time: 8/21, 04:05PM
Brief Intro
The New York Mets take on the Washington Nationals in a divisional showdown today. According to DraftKings, the Mets are favored at -144, with the Nationals as +118 underdogs. Notably, 88% of the betting money is backing the Mets, indicating a strong public sentiment in their favor.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Sean Manaea (NYM) vs MacKenzie Gore (WSH)
Sean Manaea (NYM):
Sean Manaea brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (62% usage, 91.6 mph), Sweeper (33% usage, 78.2 mph), Changeup (5% usage, 84.5 mph), and an occasional Sinker (1% usage, 89.6 mph). This pitch-mix artist relies heavily on his fastball and sweeper to disrupt batters' timing. The Nationals' lineup averages .238 this season and projects a slightly lower xBA of .237 against Manaea's offerings.
MacKenzie Gore (WSH):
MacKenzie Gore counters with a robust mix of a Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage, 95.3 mph), Curveball (24% usage, 81.4 mph), Slider (12% usage, 86.6 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 86.2 mph), and Cutter (5% usage, 90.3 mph). Gore's velocity-heavy approach could challenge the Mets, who average .252 this season but have a projected xBA of .258 against his arsenal.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Mets vs Gore:
- The Mets lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .258 against Gore's pitching.
- Biggest Increase: Juan Soto: Season BA .249 → xBA vs arsenal .309 (+60 points), Season K% 19.6% → Arsenal K% 19.7% (+0.1%).
- Biggest Decrease: Hayden Senger: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .204 (-46 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 30.5% (+8.0%).
For Nationals vs Manaea:
- The Nationals lineup averages .238 but projects a similar .238 xBA against Manaea.
- Biggest Increase: Dylan Crews: Season BA .202 → xBA vs arsenal .274 (+72 points), Season K% 26.0% → Arsenal K% 27.5% (+1.5%).
- Biggest Decrease: Paul DeJong: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .211 (-43 points), Season K% 29.0% → Arsenal K% 27.3% (-1.7%).
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
For the Mets:
- The Mets' projected K-rate is 22.4% vs Gore — up 2.4% from their 20.0% season average, indicating potential K prop value.
For the Nationals:
- The Nationals' projected K-rate is 27.9% vs Manaea — up 3.3% from their 24.6% season average, further suggesting a potential strikeout increase.
Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Juan Soto stands out as a strong batting prop candidate against Gore.
- Sean Manaea's strikeout potential against the Nationals is notable, given the projected K-rate increase.
- Umpire assignment remains unknown, adding an element of unpredictability to prop bets.
- The Mets are favored, but the Nationals' lineup, particularly Dylan Crews, could provide surprising offensive output.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Mets vs Nationals game? A: Juan Soto meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA of .309 against Gore.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is not yet announced, leaving this aspect uncertain.
Q: What time is the Mets vs Nationals game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/21 at 04:05PM.
---
Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!
---
