August 24, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Mets vs Braves: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 24)

Last updated: August 24, 2025

Game Time: 8/24, 01:35PM

Brief Intro

The New York Mets face off against the Atlanta Braves in a much-anticipated matchup. With DraftKings setting the Mets as a -137 favorite and the Braves as a +113 underdog, 88% of the money is backing the Mets. Key angles to watch include the Mets' formidable lineup against Bryce Elder's pitching and the consistency of David Peterson on the mound for New York.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: David Peterson vs Bryce Elder

David Peterson (NYM):

Peterson's arsenal consists of a Sinker (30% usage, 91.2 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage, 92.2 mph), Slider (20% usage, 84.5 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 84.3 mph), and Curveball (13% usage, 78.6 mph). Known for his mixed pitch approach, Peterson can keep hitters guessing with his varied velocity and movement. The Braves lineup averages .240 this season with a projected xBA of .240 against Peterson's mix, indicating a fair match.

Bryce Elder (ATL):

Elder relies heavily on his Sinker (42% usage, 91.3 mph) and Slider (37% usage, 84.3 mph), complemented by a Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage, 92.4 mph) and Changeup (10% usage, 86.3 mph). He is a pitch-to-contact type pitcher who relies on movement rather than overpowering velocity. The Mets lineup averages .251 this season but projects to .280 against Elder's arsenal, suggesting a potentially challenging outing for Elder.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Mets vs Bryce Elder: The Mets lineup averages .251 this season but projects to .280 against Elder's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Luis Torrens: Season BA .210 → xBA vs arsenal .302 (+92 points), Season K% 21.5% → Arsenal K% 21.2% (-0.3%)
Biggest Decrease: None with significant change.

For Braves vs David Peterson: The Braves lineup averages .241 this season with a projected xBA of .240 against Peterson's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Marcell Ozuna: Season BA .232 → xBA vs arsenal .260 (+28 points), Season K% 22.6% → Arsenal K% 20.6% (-2.0%)
Biggest Decrease: Jr. Alvarez: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .211 (-50 points), Season K% 25.3% → Arsenal K% 25.2% (-0.1%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Mets' projected K-rate is 18.8% vs Elder — down 1.0% from their 19.8% season average, indicating potential contact play.
The Braves' projected K-rate is 22.9% vs Peterson — up 0.6% from their 22.2% season average, suggesting a slight uptick in strikeout potential.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Luis Torrens (.210 → .302, +92 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant strikeout prop opportunities meet our betting threshold in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Luis Torrens presents a strong batting prop opportunity against Bryce Elder's arsenal.
No significant strikeout prop opportunities for either pitcher in this game.
Umpire assignment is not yet announced, adding volatility to prop bets.
Overall, the Mets' lineup appears to have an edge against Elder, especially given their projected batting average.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Mets vs Braves game? A: Luis Torrens meets our strict betting criteria with a significant increase in projected batting average.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it difficult to assess tendencies.

Q: What time is the Mets vs Braves game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/24 at 01:35PM.

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